SNACKS & CONFECTIONERY


Cocoa prices decline as outlook for crops improves C


ocoa prices are on a downward trend in line with a favourable supply outlook for the 2025/26


main crop. Improving production expectations led


traders to price in lower risk, resulting in falling futures prices across both London and New York markets, according to the recent Cocoa Market Report from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO). This decline contrasts sharply with September 2024, which was characterised by extreme volatility amid severe concerns for the 2024/25 season. During that period, New York prices surged to over US$10,000 per tonne, while London prices fluctuated widely. The comparison highlights a shift from supply-driven volatility to a more balanced and bearish outlook. The recent price correction is largely driven by improved global crop prospects. Ecuador continues to expand production, supported by market-driven pricing and strong yields that exceed West African averages, with output projected to surpass 600,000 tonnes in coming years. Weather conditions in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana


have also improved supporting output expectations. However, the report also said optimism is tempered by weak demand following recent price spikes and ongoing structural challenges in West Africa, including ageing trees, persistent disease and climate-related risks. While a surplus is anticipated for 2025/26, the outlook remains cautiously balanced. The soaring cocoa prices of 2025 saw some brands cut cocoa content in some iconic bars in 2025 which meant they could no longer be called chocolate. This is because in order for a product to


be described as chocolate, it must contain at least 20% cocoa solids and 20% milk solids under UK laws. Two affected products were Nestle’s


Toffee Crisp and Blue Riband. Nestle confirmed to the Sun newspaper in December: “We’ve recently updated the recipes for our Toffee Crisp range and Blue Riband. These changes have been carefully developed and sensory tested with taste and quality being a top priority at all times.” “As always, we keep our ingredients up


to date and clearly labelled on pack, so confectionery fans can continue to enjoy our products with confidence. “Like every manufacturer, we’ve seen significant increases in the cost of cocoa over the past years, making it much more expensive to manufacture our products.” pladis-owned McVitie’s Penguin and Club bars were also affected with the manufacturer turning to alternatives amid the cocoa crisis. McVitie’s cut the products’ cocoa content


and replaced it with chocolate flavouring, meaning that both treats were required to be described as “chocolate flavour”.


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