Front End | Electronic Components Supply Network
released at the end of last year suggested that the outcome for 2024 would be growth in the range of 1.6%-to-4.1% with a mid-point of 1.4%. As yet unaudited figures seem to be indicating a decline of 18%, a significantly lower outcome well below our members’ expectations. We are not alone however: There has been a similar outcome across Europe where outcomes, particularly in Germany, are even worse. The rest of the world seems to be faring much better than Europe: Asia-Pac has grown by 12% and China is reporting growth around 26%, but I suspect this is a seriously overstated number. India is benefiting from significant inward investment by multinationals and grew by 40% in 2024, albeit from a very low base. The membership of ecsn is currently collaborating to produce their consolidated forecast for the 2025 UK and Ireland electronic components market. Arriving at a consensus takes a great deal of effort and discussion with a wide range of organisations inside and outside the association, all of whom have diverse and differing points of view, but in December ’24 ecsn will launch its consolidated industry forecast for the year in prospect
and will share the headline data with CIE readers. Given the high levels of uncertainty in the market today I give notice that we may need to revise our forecast towards the middle of the year when more data becomes available. In the meantime, customer organisations in the electronic components supply network need to actively increase their involvement in wider industry collaboration both up and down their supply networks and particularly with regard to the provision of accurate and timely demand forecasting. Well managed higher-level collaboration almost always pays for itself in the long run and has proven to be a much better way forward than mere speculation or guess work.
Concluding thoughts
The electronic components market remains a good strong business to invest in, with the growth curve for global supply network over the mid- and long-term remaining “up and to the right”, even if predicting the level of growth in the short-term is something of a challenge. The executive management of all organisations (and their investors / analysts) will need to be extremely careful about how they proceed over the next twelve months.
For information
Adam Fletcher is chairman of the Electronic Components Supply Network (ecsn), a business association established in 1970 that today offers support to all organisations with an interest in electronic components throughout their
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entire lifecycle. He is also chairman of the International Distribution of Electronics Association (IDEA), an association of individual country electronic components associations whose objective is to arrive at and share best industry practice.
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