Issue 115 March 2025

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ISSUE 115 MARCH 2025 ENERGY

2025 ENERGY PREDICTIONS

In 2025, expect further renewable rollout, ongoing pain on prices, and trade wars waged by the US president. It is unlikely European gas demand will return to its pre-war levels.

Distracting headlines

2024’s fractious geopolitics saw bulls talk up energy prices, with scant justification.

Supply and demand matter more than geopolitical headlines. However, with the return of the headline-maker-in-chief to the White House, and gas exports a front in any trade war, 2025’s headlines will distract the undisciplined.

Overview

What does 2025 have in store for energy markets? Control Energy Costs (CEC) offers its thoughts.

Volatility

Piped Russian gas has stopped flowing to Europe. This wasn’t a surprise; Europe has been importing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to replace Russian gas for years.LNG is a global market; Europe must compete with the rest of the world.

As the European gas mix continues to change, and as more LNG comes online, expect opportunity for bulls and bears to talk up their positions.

Demand destruction

Europe’s gas imports are 20% down since 2022, with renewable generation, energy efficiency and industrial malaise reducing gas demand.

The new US president will support US gas exports at the expense of renewables, and may export this approach by economic force, with tariffs on key exports a likely weapon. Tariffs, added to years of high energy prices, will add more stress to Europe, suppressing demand further as businesses shutter or relocate.

As higher LNG volumes meet low European gas and power demand, there is likely to be downside opportunity in the market.

To read more, visit www.cec.uk.com/ailu

THE LASER USER

Contact: Nigel Addison-Evans nigel.addison-evans@cec.uk.com https://cec.uk.com/

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