ton in July 2022. The corresponding figure at the end of 2021 was USD 153 per ton, leading to growing interest in EGS. At the end of 2021, 30% of the global contain- er capacity had EGS, with 150 container ships adding these systems in 2021. In 2022, this trend has grown. For example, DHT Holdings, a crude oil tanker compa- ny, is investing USD 25 million to retrofit eight tankers with scrubbers. After the implementation of IMO 2020 norms, it was expected that high-BN cylinder oils will continue to decline and eventually have a small share in the overall market or may even phase out. However, as the interest in the EGS systems grows, high- BN cylinder oils are likely to regain some of the market share they lost after the implementation of IMO 2020 norms; but as mentioned earlier growth in EGS
SEPTEMBER 2023 | LUBEZINE MAGAZINE
adoption do face regulatory challenges. Moreover, the future fuel choices of shipping companies are not clear. The adoption of future fuels will vary from one shipping company to another A shipping company may even operate on multiple future fuels. However, this will depend upon the ship route and the bunkering infrastructure available at the ports along the route that the ship is ex- pected to take. It is expected that ammo- nia and methanol may be preferred for deep-sea shipping, while hydrogen might be preferred for domestic marine includ- ing inland waterways. However, other op- tions such as electric vessels and biofuels are available. These choices are expected to impact the engine oil requirements of the shipping companies. This will have business implications for marine lubri-
cant and marine lubricant additive sup- pliers as they need to invest in developing engine oils and their additives for future fuels.
These challenges are expected to in-
crease entry barriers for new marine en- gine oil suppliers as they lack the know- how and may not have the resources to make the investments needed. However, the challenges also provide opportunities. The existing marine lubricant suppliers will need to increase engagement with shipping companies, engine OEMs, and additive suppliers to succeed in this in- dustry, given the increasing uncertainty.
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Kline has recently published a report on the Marine Lubricants industry providing market estimates and trends in this industry including the topics highlighted in this article.
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