FEATURE FUTURE FUELS


the share of methanol in the new ship- building orders in terms of gross ton- nage jumped from 1% in 2020 to 6% in 2022, while LNG share jumped from 21% in 2020 to 46% in 2022. However, LNG is seen as an interim fuel before the ship- ping industry transitions to future fuels, such as hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and LPG. This is because, though LNG is cleaner compared with the current ma- rine fuels, they still have a significant carbon footprint. It should be noted that vessels running on ammonia are not in operation as of now. Ammonia engines for the shipping industry are expected to be supplied toward the end of 2024, with the first ship running on ammonia being commissioned in 2025. Biofuel demand for the shipping in-


dustry is also expected to grow, espe- cially against the backdrop of EU ETS. It is also seen as a strategy to meet the decarbonization targets of 2030 and 2050 as the increasing usage of biofuels will reduce carbon emissions. Currently, various blends of biofuels with marine fuels, such as B10, B20, and B30, can be used in the shipping industry. However, the price of fuel increases as the share of biofuels increases in the marine fuel blend. For example, B30 can cost USD 300 per tone more than B10. The VLSFO is priced around USD 50−100 per ton lower than B10. As a result, shipping companies prefer B10 to ensure that the cost of fuel remains under control. Hydrogen is also used in the shipping industry, although its usage is limited to ships such as ferries used for short-dis- tance travel. For example, CMB Tech start- ed a commercial ferry using hydrogen as fuel in 2021. Electric vessels are also ex- pected to be available in the market. Cur-


CHARACTERISTICS


rently, only a few electric vessels are in operation, but their usage is expected to grow. As electric vessels do not need en- gine oils, the increasing usage of electric vessels is expected to be a negative factor for marine engine oil demand growth. Initially, electric vessels are expected to become popular for tugs and ferries. Ves- sels operating on inland waterways may also use electric vessels; however, swap- pable battery solutions will be ideal for them. For now, ships running on future fuels


are mostly using Category II 40 BN cylin- der oils as the number of ships running on these fuels is still small. However, fu- ture fuels have different characteristics from the fossil fuels being used today and may need specific solutions to handle any lubrication issues arising from their use. These issues are described in the follow- ing table. As new engine oils specific for future fuels are launched, the shipping industry will transform from a single-engine-oil industry to a multiple-engine-oils (six to seven types) industry. This, in turn, is ex- pected to make supply chain management challenging for engine oil suppliers. Ma- rine lube suppliers are expected to ratio- nalize their product portfolio and phase out engine oils such as Category I 40 BN cylinder oils and other engine oils that make up a small portion of their overall portfolio. Category I 40 BN cylinder oils are mainly used for older engines, howev- er, engine OEMs are also recommending using Category II 40 BN cylinder oils to be used in these engines. This is expected to provide further incentive to phase out Category I 40 BN cylinder oils. This situation is further exacerbated due to the spread in the average price of


ENGINE OIL REQUIREMENTS FOR FUTURE FUELS FUEL


Methanol Ammonia Biofuels LNG-a


• Can cause engine wear • Can interact with engine oil, which can lead to emulsion formation


• Is corrosive • Is expected to form different acids from the fossil fuels used currently


• Poses the risk of oxidation and deposit formation, which could cause engine wear


• Is a gaseous fuel


SOURCE | KLINE


VLSFO and 3.5% sulfur fuel. As per the in- formation available on Ship & Bunker, the average price spread for the top 20 bun- kering ports hit a high of USD 420.5 per


ENGINE OIL REQUIREMENTS • Engine oil will need to have anti-wear and demulsifiers.


• Engine oil will need to have corrosion inhibitors and may need a different acid neutralization solution than what is used currently.


• Engine oil will need to have anti-wear and anti-oxidation properties.


• Thermal robustness is needed. Category II 40 BN cylinder oils are expected to be a good solution.


a- LNG is not a future fuel but is included in the table as its usage in the shipping industry is expected to grow as a transition fuel. 34 LUBEZINE MAGAZINE | SEPTEMBER 2023


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