FEATURE FUTURE FUELS
MARINE LUBRICANTS
Future fuels set to transform the marine lubricants industry
(IMO) norms on the maximum allowed sulfur concentration to be 0.5% in ma- rine fuel, which are also known as IMO 2020 norms, from January 1, 2020, and COVID-19, which disrupted normal op- erations. The next challenges that the industry is expected to face are the de- carbonization 2030 and 2050 norms. This article will focus on the aftermaths of the IMO 2020 norms and COVID-19 on the marine lubricants industry and how it is likely to evolve in the future as the ship- ping industry tries to meet the decarbon- ization targets.
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The implementation of IMO 2020 norms restricted the sulfur concentra- tion in marine fuel to 0.5%. This fuel is known as very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO). However, a ship could continue to use 3.5% sulfur fuel if it had installed an ex- haust gas scrubber (EGS). About 95% of the ships opted for VLSFO to meet IMO 2020 norms, as there was uncertainty re- garding the EGS systems to meet future fuel norms from the IMO. Further, many countries banned the wash water dis- charge from open-loop scrubbers. The introduction of VLSFO led to sig- nificant changes in the marine lubricants industry, including the categorization of cylinder oils into categories I and II. De- mand was expected to shift from higher base number (BN) cylinder oils to lower BN cylinder oils; however, the shift was smaller than anticipated. This is because deposits in the piston rings and crowns were seen in new engines with the exist- ing 40 BN cylinder oil at the time in ships that were using VLSFO. As a result, ship- ping companies were using 40 BN cylin- der oil most of the time and used 100 BN cylinder oil for a short period to remove deposits. Thus, the demand decline for
SEPTEMBER 2023 | LUBEZINE MAGAZINE
he shipping industry has faced two major challenges from 2019–2022: the imple- mentation of Internation- al Maritime Organization
higher BN cylinder oils was lower than anticipated. This triggered a need for a cylinder oil with the acid neutralization capability of a 40 BN cylinder oil and the detergency of 100 BN cylinder oil. MAN categorized such cylinder oils under cat- egory II 40 BN cylinder oils. Category II 40 BN cylinder oils were introduced by major marine lubricant suppliers in 2022. The introduction of category II cylin-
der oils also led to a change in how cylin- der oils were selected. Earlier, BN was the key criterion to select a cylinder oil, as it was used to judge the acid neutralization capability and detergency of the cylinder oil. However, due to VLSFO, the need for a higher BN or higher acid neutraliza- tion capability has been reduced, but the need for higher detergency remains. This has led to the decoupling of the BN and detergency for cylinder oil performance. This will have implications for cylinder oil selection in the future, as detergency becomes more important than acid neu- ralization capability. The second key challenge that the ship- ping industry faced was COVID-19, which led to the adoption of digital technolo- gies in the shipping industry. Onboard inspections became difficult or could not be conducted due to restrictions put in place by countries to control the spread of COVID-19.
It is estimated that the number of visits by support personnel
The implementation of IMO 2020 norms restricted the sulfur concentration in marine fuel to 0.5%. This fuel is known as very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO).
to vessels reduced by 65% to 70% due to COVID-19-related restrictions, resulting in reduced on-board as well as onshore support to the ship. Shipping companies, OEMs, and marine lubricant suppliers had to rely on digital technologies to pro- vide support to the vessel as in-person services could not be provided. This also helped reduce operating costs. For exam- ple, marine lubricants suppliers did not send experts to different vessels, leading to a reduction in travel costs. Such ser- vices will continue to gain importance in the future as they help provide wide cov- erage while also reducing costs. Another major challenge that the ship- ping industry is expected to face is the decarbonization targets for 2030 and 2050. These norms aim to reduce the average carbon intensity (CO2 per ton- mile) by a minimum of 40% by 2030 and 70% by 2050 compared to 2008. Further, greenhouse gas emissions are targeted to be reduced by 50% by 2050 compared to 2008. To meet these targets, the shipping industry will need to use alternative fuels (also known as future fuels) such as meth- anol, hydrogen, ammonia, and biofuels to reduce emissions. These fuels have dif- ferent characteristics from the high sul- fur fuel or VLSFO, requiring engine oils specific for these fuels to be developed. Further, the inclusion of the shipping in- dustry in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) means that the shipping industry will have to pay for carbon emissions starting in 2024. This is expected to further drive the usage of fu- ture fuels in the shipping industry while increasing the cost of those who don’t use these fuels. As a result, interest in future fuels for the shipping industry is rising. This can be seen from the shift in the new ship- building orders toward alternative or future fuels. According to data on new shipbuilding orders for 2020, 2021, and January to April 2022 published by DNV,
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