Routes
bleaker. He expects most business meetings will remain online and that business people will start taking one major work trip a year rather than shorter, more frequent trips. “Remember, most airlines make their money in international services and in business class. The business market is going to be hit.” Furthermore, the end point isn’t necessarily in sight.
have received more than €32bn in financial support, Europe’s airports have only been extended €2.3bn.” With revenues still low, most airports are financing operations through loans and their debt level has ballooned. They will need to be compensated for damage caused by lockdowns and travel restrictions, Jankovec says. “Close to 200 airports in Europe are presently at risk of insolvency. This is about fairness, and this is about protecting and safeguarding vital transport infrastructure for the future.”
The kingmakers
As more legacy carriers pull out of routes or consolidate, Charlton sees budget carriers like easyJet and Ryanair becoming “kingmakers” – choosing which routes and airports live or die. There may be opportunities to change the entire dynamics of some routes. “If you offered flights into Heathrow, at the right price, to easyJet or Ryanair, they would bite your hand off. EasyJet could be right back in there with Heathrow for negotiations on the assumption of available capacity. I think there’s every chance that the whole slot regime will get thrown up in the air,” says Charlton.
An immediate problem hindering decision making is that the move towards recovery is out of airports’ hands until governments lift Covid-19 restrictions. “[As long as] governments keep banning non-essential international travel and keep imposing quarantines for whatever essential travel is allowed, air connectivity will not recover,” Jankovec states. When routes do open, however, he expects a spike in demand. “No one has a crystal ball to see the future, but the need and desire for travel is very strong, and that should not be underestimated,” he says of both business and leisure travel. While long haul for leisure will remain difficult, the VFR (visiting friends and relatives) market will quickly bounce back as people scramble to see relatives, Charlton agrees. Elsewhere, his outlook is
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“There’s a certain amount of cautious optimism around in terms of vaccines and vaccine passports,” Charlton notes. “I’m much more pessimistic. We seem to be in a race between the vaccines and the variants.” At the UK AOA, Dee is also worried about variants and says there is a need for strong messaging in terms of the science of Covid-19. She suggests there is a risk of aviation being made a scapegoat for not just the spread of Covid-19, but also the proliferation of variants. The UK variant, officially known as the ‘Alpha variant’, illustrates that new strains can develop and spread anywhere.
“I am slightly concerned about a narrative that seems to be developing, which suggests that variants only occur in other countries, and therefore can only get here by plane,” she says. “My basic understanding of viruses is that that’s not the case.”
Border problems
The nationalistic approach to Covid-19 that has arisen over the past year or so risks a metaphorical wall going up around Europe, prolonging the international cut-off. National borders have become a greater point of contention than they have since 1991, when the single European aviation market was first established.
The holiday market will be reshaped from within Europe as a result, with short-haul travel coming at the expense of longer journeys until global vaccination numbers align. “That’s good news for countries like Greece and Croatia, but it’s terrible news for places like France because Paris is the most visited city on Earth – and they’re not Europeans coming to Paris, mostly they’re Chinese, Japanese and Americans,” Charlton points out.
Jankovec believes that everything hinges on travel restrictions and the vaccines rollout, as well as on testing. The focus should be on exempting vaccinated and Covid-19-negative passengers from travel bans and quarantine in order to open routes. Again, Dee says much will depend on travellers getting clear messaging from governments. “Passengers will be looking for destinations that give them greater certainty. We can’t be in a position where we keep closing and opening again,” she adds. “I think one of the challenges for government and the industry is that this is a slightly moveable feast. Things that we have to manage this summer we will hopefully not have to manage next summer, but we do need to have flying and a decent summer to help get the industry going again.” ●
1.72 billion
Passengers lost in Europe in 2020 due to Covid-19. ACI Europe
7,000
Routes lost in Europe over the past year. ACI Europe
21
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