Cybersecurity
Cyber warfare is often seen as an option to strike at an enemy that falls short of provoking major confrontation.
in periods of relative peace than they appear to be amid the violence, destruction and ops tempo of a military campaign,” Wilde noted, speaking on the challenges Russia has faced since the start of the Ukraine invasion. “The most advanced military cyber forces are still wrestling with how to effectively integrate them.” At the same time, this lack of effectiveness is often beside the point for many leaders, who turn to cyber specifically for some of the reasons that make it less impactful. For one, it can be used as a coercive tool without risking escalation – unlike a physical troop presence, for example. At the same time, leaders can point to it and say that action is taking place, without risking lives or much in the way of costs. It’s worth noting that proponents of cyber’s coercive potential expect it to be more potent than conventional tools that commonly fail, which is rarely the case. Erica Lonergan, assistant professor in the Army Cyber Institute at West Point, and Michael Poznansky, associate professor in the Strategic and Operational Research Department, discuss this issue in a May 2023 article in War on the Rocks. They note that by “placing disproportionate faith in a fragile and ephemeral capability, [cyber supporters] overlook the fact that coercion of all kinds often fails”. Should China choose to use its cyber capabilities to launch attacks on US military and civilian infrastructure to deter it from stepping in on any potential conflict with Taiwan, then, it’s hard to see it having the desired effect. Indeed, it may be more likely to rally the American public against China than to divide it – just as we’ve seen across Europe after the past decade of Russian cyber aggression. That’s not to say, however, that Beijing won’t choose to go down this road anyway – there aren’t many alternatives it can take to strike at the US directly without risking escalation.
Importance of pragmatism As a result, even if cyber’s potential for successful coercion and deterrence is limited, the potential for
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widespread disruption still demands that nations in the West continue to invest in cyber defence resiliency. It’s clear, too, that the appetite for offensive use of cyber is still good and strong within the US – the 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy called on the US to conduct “disruption campaigns” on an ongoing basis. Similarly, the concept of “integrated deterrence” formed a core aspect of the 2022 National Defense Strategy, which sees offensive cyber operations as one of many factors of intimidation against potential opponents. For Lonergan and Poznansky, future US cyber strategies should be more explicit not only about the benefits of cyber but also its limitations. They cite the UK’s National Cyber Force ‘Responsible Cyber Power in Practice’ white paper regarding the challenges around offensive cyber operations – notably, the limited evidence that cyber can be a “primary contributor to deterrence” and the difficulties around measuring the effect of covert operations, noting “it can sometimes be difficult to say definitively that a particular outcome was the result of particular operations”.
Realism, then, is the goal for leaders looking to truly integrate cyber capabilities into their nation’s military toolbox. Cyber can still be an effective tool, over insights that can inform and enhance non-digital forms of coercion and deterrence. Some leaders will continue to use cyber as a coercive tool directly, though likely as just one option in a repertoire. “There remain questions over the role of cyber operations as part of modern deterrence,” the ‘Responsible Cyber Power in Practice’ report states. Despite these queries, however, and the various challenges in place, even those most sceptical of the benefits of cyber for offensive operations accept that it will continue to play a role in some form or other. The key, then, is to engage with these issues while still offering a robust vision for the future of cyber – just make sure to reign in your expectations. ●
Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com
M_Agency/
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