Transport & logistics
chemical, biological or radiological hazards – although decontamination of the systems would still be necessary. Lastly, one can imagine scenarios of military deception where convoys of vehicles would be sent in directions meant to deceive the reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition capabilities of enemy forces.”
Rather than totally replacing humans, automation will likely pair up man and machine to accomplish missions.
A veteran of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Michael Noonan, senior fellow at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, argues that “as technologies mature, the automation of trucks is of importance to both civilian industry and the military. While some of the uses of this technology would overlap – increasing the safe delivery of supplies and materiel over extended distances – there would also be large differences in their uses. Neither civilians nor the military would completely drive the innovation and diffusion of technological advances in this space.” Noonan thinks it is also important that we don’t think about any automation of supply trucks as simply replacing humans with unmanned systems. “This process, particularly in military settings, would almost certainly be the pairing of man and machine to swiftly, accurately and safely deliver supplies across territory where movement might be impeded or harassed by enemy forces, criminal elements, or displaced persons,” he says. “The ability of crew to operate the vehicles as necessary, defend and protect the vehicle convoys, and perform necessary maintenance will be essential. One could also think about scenarios where a human operated system could control other vehicles remotely.” Automating military trucks is not simply a matter of pure research and development or science fiction conjecture. In 2011, for instance, the British Army deployed the Squad Mission Support System vehicle, also known as the ‘Ox’, to Afghanistan. Noonan saw that “these remote-operated vehicles were able to carry out missions such as delivering ammunition to special operations forces in harm’s way or construction materials to units in rough terrain”.
If one was to speculate about pure automation, however, one can readily imagine certain scenarios where that might be beneficial. Noonan’s view on this is straightforward: “One would be delivering supplies across particularly hostile territories where losses to artillery barrages or precision strike systems could reduce risks. Another would be delivering supplies across an area that was contaminated by nuclear,
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A long road ahead Regarding the path ahead for AVs, energy and transportation technology consultant Steve Boyd says that “there remains a long road to commercially profitable and scalable solo driverless automated vehicles. In the meantime, new generation advanced driver-assistance systems, leader-follower systems and other connected vehicle solutions can be commercially deployed more widely. And this process is well underway, despite overall macroeconomic headwinds. This type of human-in-the-loop solutions also is complementary to the longer process of developing commercially viable individual driverless vehicles.” Although some AV companies continue touting near- term commercial deployment plans, Boyd’s expectation is that it may take tens of billions of dollars in further investment for each major driverless AV company seeking to deploy complete systems. And it will require a decade or more to see fully driverless individual vehicles become commercially profitable and scalable on open roadways and in non-controlled environments. It is clear that a reckoning is underway in the market, one which will be especially harsh for AV companies that fail to develop significant interim revenue products or alternative long-term sources of capital. For those that are able to survive and adapt, partial automation products or related solutions can also be important stepping stones on the much longer road to profitable fully driverless systems. Boyd argues that, “Over recent years, many companies have begun to develop and deploy interim products that can be deployed nearer term – such as advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), safety systems and automation systems that enhance the safety of human drivers, systems that require extensive direct supervision by remote human operators, and automation systems only for use in highly controlled environments – such as truck/trailer yards, private mining/logging roads, controlled routes between warehouses, mining sites, construction sites and farm fields.”
Leaders at the DoD see a long timeline to the deployment of fully driverless vehicles. As Boyd notes, “They are focused on the practicality and safety of human-in-the-loop automation systems like vehicles with a mixture of leader-follower, ADAS and individual automated vehicle capabilities.” Further deployments of these types of military systems, largely supported by OEMs and suppliers with affiliated commercial businesses, will complement the commercial development and deployment of similar solutions. ●
Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com
Kratos Defense and Security Solutions
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