Cybersecurity
least 300 companies in Ukraine, and one senior government official estimated that 10% of all computers in the country were wiped by the virus. All of this goes to show that the danger that cyber poses the modern world is both present and tangible. The US’s March 2023 ‘National Cybersecurity Strategy’ report, authored by the Office of the National Cyber Director, highlighted the threat posed by malicious cyber activity encompassing everything from espionage and intellectual property theft; damaging attacks against critical infrastructure; and cyber-enabled influence campaigns designed to undermine public trust in the very foundation of democracy. Previously, such abilities would only be available to a small number of well-resourced countries, but today these tools are widely accessible, empowering countries that in the past might have lacked the ability to harm US interests. The ‘National Cybersecurity Strategy’ report highlights the governments of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea and their “revisionist intent” as the greatest source of cyber threats to US national security and economic prosperity. Of these nations, China undoubtedly represents the biggest challenge to US interests. With potential conflict looming with the US over Taiwan, the US intelligence community’s ‘2023 Annual Threat Assessment’ states that Beijing would “almost certainly consider undertaking aggressive cyber operations against US homeland critical infrastructure and military assets worldwide”, if they felt that war was “imminent”. Such a strike would be designed to deter US military action by impeding decision making, inducing societal panic and interfering with the deployment of US forces. Europe, on the other hand, face a belligerent Russia on its doorstep, which is more likely to be of concern in the immediate future. With that said, Russia’s cyber activity surrounding the war fell short of the pace and impact expected, according to the US Department of Defense, though it conceded that Russia will remain a considerable cyber threat – noting that Russia “views cyber disruptions as a foreign policy lever to shape other countries’ decisions”.
Indeed, prior to the invasion of Ukraine, cybersecurity expert Jason Healey hypothesised in a January 2022 article in War on the Rocks that a cyberattack in Ukraine that wiped all the data on affected machines – as opposed to stealing data from them – could result in a “psychological shock to the public and to decision makers” that could successfully “coerce the US into backing down”. Other coverage run by War on the Rocks at the time warned of the potential for Russia to use cyber tools to cow Ukraine into submission.
Limitations of cyber coercion and deterrence In the face of these bad actors, whether they be criminal efforts or those of foreign governments,
militaries have moved to keep up, investing more and more money into developing their cyber capabilities. The US alone announced in June 2022 that it was allocating $15.6bn for cybersecurity over the fiscal year 2023. The UK, similarly, has made its intentions in this area clear. On 4 April 2023, its National Cyber Force published the report ‘Responsible Cyber Power in Practice’, where it stated that the UK government believed it “cannot leave cyberspace an uncontested space where adversaries operate with impunity”. Earlier, in the Integrated Review 2021, the UK announced its intention to possess cyber warfare capabilities for use in furthering its interests. However, for all the danger that cyberwarfare poses to today’s society, its effectiveness for deterrence and coercion in military terms is up for debate. NotPetya was certainly an incredibly damaging piece of malware, but how successfully did it further Moscow’s objectives? The cyberwarfare it ran against Ukraine has gone on for nearly a decade, and yet Russia’s invasion could hardly have gone worse. Similarly, the unpredictable nature of cyber was shown in full effect through NotPetya, as it would eventually spread back to Russia – striking at Rosneft, the state oil company, as part of its global tour of chaos and disruption. With this in mind, some experts and analysts are beginning to voice notes of caution over cyber’s potential, pointing out that its coercive abilities – to force or convince other nations or bodies to concede to specific objectives – are hampered by a number of factors, such as its limitations in generating costly effects; its inherent unpredictability, which makes it difficult to cause a desired effect to take place in a specific place at a specific time; and that signalling intention to use cyber capabilities can undermine their effectiveness. What’s more, it’s becoming clear that cyber’s efficiency plummets in wartime, with target nations now prepared for and anticipating such attacks. “Even the most sophisticated cyber and information operations are simply more impactful and resonant
Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com
While cyber warfare was previously only available to wealthy nations, it is now widely accessible.
$15.6bn
The amount allocated by the US government for cybersecurity over the fiscal year 2023.
Security Intelligence 45
Halfpoint/
Shutterstock.com
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