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Above left: Papilio lets the grain shine Above right: Wren Japandi style kitchen
In terms of kitchens delivered, Howdens was up 4.4% in 2022 at 522,000, Magnet 4.1% at 57,250, B&Q 1.7% at 117,000, Wickes 6.1% at 39,500 and Homebase saw no change at 23,000. Specialist studio volume sales dipped 0.3% to 150,500, multiple merchants grew 16.7% to 35,000, while direct contract was down 3.6%. Wren delivered 10.9% kitchens more at 132,000, Ikea 9% fewer at 45,500, and other national retailers and other retail increased volume by 14.3% and 10.7% to 8,000 and 15,500 respectively (all figures JKMR). But, while we’re still awaiting final number crunching, preliminary analysis points to all change in 2023.
“Rising mortgage costs, allied to overall cost of living pressures, have decreased consumers’ ability to invest in discretionary ‘big ticket’ purchasing,” says JKMR. “At the same time, house price stagnation, and ongoing fear of more substantial deflation, has led others to question the value of investing in their property, or delay plans for house moves.”
A fall in new build completions in 2023
sucked more energy from the market. As a result, JKMR predicts a “substantial fall in the number of kitchen installations during 2023, with a currently projected decline of 10.25% on 2022 levels, putting installations back below 1.15 million, just above 2015 levels”.
On a brighter note, sales value for 2023 was expected to remain stable. “While this partly reflects material and manufacturers sales price rises being passed on, it remains the case that a useful proportion of kitchen buyers are still shifting specification upward, even if this means utilising consumer credit,” says JKMR. “However, it should also be kept in mind that for householders replacing a kitchen that is
10-12 years old, it is now possible to purchase products that upgrade the existing kitchen (for example, induction hobs, non-laminate worktops, cabinetry with complex internal storage systems) within a low-to-lower-mid (albeit not most basic) budget.” Less heartening is JKMR’s prediction that the downward volume trend in the market will persist through this year, albeit that sales value will continue to be underpinned by that “useful proportion” of buyers trading up.
On-going concerns as to household finances, property prices, and mortgage repayment rises [shaping] consumer attitudes to undertaking major elective household refurbishment are expected to impact activity in the key 2024 winter sale period, it says. “Indications are that new build completions will also fail to see any significant boom over the year,” states JKMR. “Consequently, at present 2024 installations are projected to fall further, dropping 4.8% to take the market back below 1.1 million installations.” Once more, however, market value is expected to prove more resilient. “Where kitchens are being purchased there are sufficient numbers of clients looking for higher specified products in the upper ends of the market and wishing to upgrade on an existing kitchen in the mid- market, to drive up average project value,” says JKMR.
A projected gradual improvement in property transactions in 2024 is expected to lead to kitchen installations returning to growth in 2025, but with continuing high mortgage payments, JKMR expects improvement to be slight.
A positive the timber sector can take from the company’s report is its contention that sustainability looks set to become an ever- greater influence on consumer kitchen choice.
“Eco/sustainable product specification may become a more fundamental expectation in buying, whether driven by legislation or client desire,” states JKMR.
It also maintains that cradle-to-grave carbon impact will become of increasing concern to buyers, albeit highlighting that this could lead to use of new kitchen materials created from recycled and waste products.
“It may [also] become incumbent upon kitchen suppliers to provide a means for the client to upcycle their pre-existing kitchen, or, at least, to provide guidance or assistance on how to dispose of it more sustainably,” says JKMR.
The market is also expected to turn increasingly to biophilic, nature-influenced design and specification. “More widely the market will need to ensure that it embraces the wider concept of holistic design, although many in the industry may well argue that this is simply a re-naming of already existing concepts of ‘good’ design,” states JKMR. “Within this the concept of the Well Building Standard may become more important, particularly in new build. This is explained as: ‘Transforming the indoor environment by placing health and wellness at the centre of design and construction decisions, offering innovative solutions for the built environment’.” ■
FURTHER INFORMATION
For more information and the full JKMR report contact Jayne Barber on: +44 (0)7507 612816,
email
jkbarber1965@live.co.uk.
Or go to
https://trend-monitor.co.uk/ category/jkmr-reports
www.ttjonline.com | March/April 2024 | TTJ
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