20 | Opinion: 2022 Predictions


giving mills little respite and by the time the summer of 2021 arrived long faces were replaced by tired faces as the supply chain fought to keep wood flowing from forest to mill.


Then as late summer temperatures cooled so did demand. By the time I began visiting mills again in October, there were reports of stocks building and faces showed relief at the opportunity to draw breath.


Forest industries set fair


STUART GOODALL CONFOR CHIEF EXECUTIVE


When the first lockdown began the UK forestry and timber sector had been looking forward to better times following the depressive effect beetle damaged timber from central Europe had on demand and prices. But as construction sites shut, it seemed inevitable the timber industry would suffer and there were many long faces. The first glimpse of light came with Confor’s success in persuading the four administrations in the UK that domestic wood production was an essential activity given the need for packaging for food and medical supplies, the transport of these products on pallets, energy generation from wood, and fencing for farmers. As a consequence, demand for timber quickly resumed.


Then came furlough and travel restrictions, and the nation began to channel disposable income into home and garden improvements, alongside strong demand for construction grade timber. Imports flexed most to meet increased demand, but UK mills were running at full shift capacity with sustained levels of high production. The strong domestic demand continued through the winter of 2020/21,


While no-one can predict the


future, the main drivers for sustained strong demand for timber are still there in the UK and policy developments are providing reasons to be even more optimistic


TTJ | January/February 2022 | www.ttjonline.com


The question now is, does this switch reflect a ‘traditional’ seasonal slow-down or fundamental change? While no-one can predict the future, the main drivers for sustained strong demand for timber are still there in the UK and policy developments are providing reasons to be even more optimistic. What COP26 made clear is that the world is still seeking solutions that reduce carbon while allowing for economic growth, and wood sits well in that space.


The Declaration on Forests and Land Use and pledges to halt ‘imported deforestation’ will raise further questions about where the UK sources its timber. However, the domestic sector has limited capacity to grow further and imports will always be a major part of UK consumption. Therefore, getting our ‘house in order’ on imports is vital for the reputation of both imported and home- grown timber. We’ve heard a lot about building back better and greener from the pandemic, and clearly this provides opportunities for our industry. Like COP26, the thinking behind this places a focus on economic activity that helps reduce emissions and challenges sectors like construction to go faster in reducing emissions.


Confor continues to press governments to do more to promote wood and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has convened a cross-departmental group to work with industry to take this forward. Scotland is already working with industry to promote the use of wood and the Welsh government is keen to do so too. Ultimately the fortunes of the domestic sector are dictated by what happens elsewhere in the world, and on that there are also reasons to be optimistic. Global demand for wood is forecast to grow strongly, we have impending export restrictions in Russia and, in time, pest damage in Canada and central Europe will reduce supply. Looking ahead there is optimism we will see strong demand within the UK. There are positive indicators coming from the construction sector and further storms this winter could load up demand for fencing. After a breathless 2020 and 2021, 2022 may be more of a canter than a sprint, but the UK wood market appears to have the stamina to push on. Hopefully that will keep a smile on people’s faces! ■


Building merchant excellence


JOHN NEWCOMB BUILDERS MERCHANTS FEDERATION CEO


After almost two years of living with coronavirus, one of the most impressive things about the merchant sector is its adaptability and resilience.


Huge demand for building work and materials required to undertake it inevitably led to issues with product availability and supply, but merchants have risen to the challenge to manage stock and help customers get the products required to keep projects on track.


CO2 nstructZero is a further


nstructZero Business Champion status since the programme launched last year


example of collaboration. BMF members have been swift to respond to the government’s call to reduce our carbon footprint. Together they account for 20 of the 50 companies achieving CO2


The BMF’s Builders Merchants Building Index (BMBI), which analyses data from over 80% of generalist builders merchants sales throughout Great Britain, reported record sales in Q2 2021, followed by another strong quarter in Q3. Timber and joinery products have driven much of this growth, with sales to the end of October up by 57.2% compared to the same period in 2020, and up by 36% on 2019 pre-pandemic.


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