FORECAST 2022
prices have also fueled aggressive invest- ments in mining exploration, shafts, and well structures. The economy should also benefit from
more spending on commercial structures. “We’re going to see more non-residential construction next year,” says Bill Conerly, principal of his own consulting firm in Lake Oswego, Ore. “It will be strongest probably in warehouses and light industrial, but also suburban offices. Early indicators, like the Architectural Billings Index, are looking positive.” This will be a welcome change over recent flat activity, which Conerly attri- butes to the long lead times characteristic of such projects, and a scarcity of new initiatives in the early days of the pandemic. “Early in 2020, nobody was signing papers to acquire land or do new projects,” he says. “So what we see going on now are projects that were planned pre-pandemic or with short lead times.” Fueling the trend: ready money. “For the most part, our companies are able
to access funds for hard capital invest- ments and lines of credit,” says Palisin. “Financing has loosened up since a year ago, when everybody was in a high state of uncertainty.” On the residential side, housing starts
have been running about 15 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels, accord- ing to Moody’s Analytics. The prediction is for full steam ahead. “Annual growth in housing starts will
remain strong
because of favorable demand-side fac- tors, namely demographics and excess savings,” says Yaros. Increases for 2022 are expected to top 11.9 percent—very aggressive by historical standards and slightly higher than the previous year’s 10.6 percent. Eager consumers are bidding up
the prices of single-family homes, and a general easing of mortgage lending standards is helping grease the skids. Housing prices for 2021 are expected to jump 17.5 percent—a considerable
improvement over the previous year’s 10.4 percent. As for 2022, Moody’s Analytics expects increases to decelerate to 4.6 percent,
thanks to difficult comparisons.
Scarce Workers The generally favorable economic forecast is not without its clouds. As most employ- ers will attest, today’s ambitious hiring initiatives are colliding with a scarcity of candidates. “Our members are having diffi- culty finding enough workers, especially for entry-level jobs,” says Palisin. “The average time to hire has doubled from what it was prior to the pandemic. This will certainly impact our member’s ability to take on new work or provide on-time delivery.” Nationwide job openings recently
topped a record-shattering 11 million—a huge increase over the 7 million pre- pandemic level. “The No. 1 concern of businesses going forward will be finding qualified labor,” says Yaros. “There have
year-to-year
FIRST QUARTER 2022
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