PUBLIC POLICY
Predicting the Political Future By Jim Ellis Advocates Argentum For You
At Argentum, we are dedicated to advo- cating on your behalf for issues that are critical to your business and to the resi- dents who call senior living home. We also encourage you to stay informed on policy issues that may have an impact on your company or your community, and to en- gage in grassroots advocacy to voice your support or opposition to those matters. With every election comes the poten-
tial for party and policy changes that could have a dramatic effect on your business—for better or for worse. The same can be said for the upcoming 2018 congressional midterm elections. Here, you’ll read insights on the impending elections from Jim Ellis, president of El- lis Insight, LLC and a 35-year political veteran who analyzes election data for major corporations, associations, and legislative advocacy firms. To learn more, be sure to join us at
the Argentum Public Policy Institute & Fly-In, March 20-21, in Washington, D.C., where Jim will share his perspec- tive on what we might expect to see this November. Argentum members may register at
argentum.org/ppi.
For the past dozen years, I have been fore- casting elections for various audiences and clients, but accurately predicting just how the 2018 campaign will unfold appears to be a uniquely difficult task. With Democrat Doug Jones converting the Alabama special election last month, and new Senator Tina Smith (D-MN) standing for a concurrent special election this November, a changing picture is emerging for the coming Senate election campaigns. Before Alabama, it was a virtual math-
ematical certainty that the Republicans would retain Senate control after the 2018 vote because the Democrats had so few viable conversion targets. Jones’ special election victory in Alabama now gives the Democrats a path to attaining the ma- jority, but they still have to overcome the GOP’s strong defensive wall. In summary, the Democrats must win all 26 of their 2018 defense seats, including those in 10 states President Trump carried, and then take the two competitive Republican toss- up seats in Arizona and Nevada. On the other hand, the GOP must defend only eight races; six of those are arguably in the party’s strongest states. Turning to the House, looking at the
country from a regional perspective gives a better picture of exactly what the Demo- crats face in attempting to convert the net 24 seats required to claim even a one-seat mar- gin in the next House of Representatives.
Republicans can easily brush aside
Democratic conjecture that the elector- ate is already sending signals that a 2018 wave election is coming. The 2017 special election’s performance, the respective Virginia and New Jersey statewide wins, President Trump’s and the Republican Congress’ poor approval ratings, and a new administration’s first midterm woes, are largely inconsequential in forecasting what voters will do nine months from now. Even if we accept the Democrats’ ar- guments that the precursors for a wave election are forming, the road to convert- ing the House majority remains difficult to master. When we have seen major seat changes occur in past elections, the winning party has done well in converting open seats. Though we again will see a large number of U.S. House campaigns without incumbents (49), the competitive configuration within this campaign cate- gory is different in 2018. After converting a necessary six seats in
Argentum Public Policy Institute and Fly-In
March 20–21, 2018 | Washington, DC
argentum.org/ppi 52 SENIOR LIVING EXECUTIVE JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2018
the northeast, the Democrats must then gain two seats in Florida, and one each in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Texas, Virginia, and Washington, and then take five of seven targeted districts in Cal- ifornia. And, on top of all this, they must protect five of their own vulnerable seats in Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire, meaning their real number to attaining the barest of majorities from the most hotly contested campaigns is actually 29—and, that assumes they re-elect all 179 of their incumbents who are seeking re-election. Furthermore, and most importantly,
we must remember that the Democrats must achieve all of the aforementioned quota goals, and if so, their reward is a mere one-seat majority. Looking at the political situation from
the micro perspective brings into focus just how difficult the Democrats’ task con- tinues to be, even if the current political winds appear to be at their back.
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