CENTRE-SOUTH BRAZIL PRODUCTION AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE 2025 SUGAR SEASON


Last season (2023/24) CS Brazil production ended with a final figure of 42.4m tonnes of sugar.


As we enter the last couple of months of the 2024/25 season we are starting to see the real impact of extreme drought. Traders have spent the last month downgrading their forecasts. As is always the case, forecasts vary, but some analysts are using numbers closer to 39m tonnes. This would be more than 3m m/t less than last year and shows just how much the weather has played it’s role.


With the harvest in full flow around 75% of the crop had been processed by mid-September, and the mills would have almost all but closed ahead of the October/November rains. Due to the early speed of the crush, it seems the latter part of crushing season will start to show a decline on crush numbers. This therefore reduces the crush forecast to nearer 610m m/t. For the most part the spread on expectations had been between 605 and 625, but recently a few analysts have started considering numbers as low as 590m m/t.


RAW SUGAR EXPORTS From May through August 2024, raw sugar exports were seen at 12.275 m/t, the same period for last year was just 10m m/t. Given the lower overall production forecasts and extremely heavy early season pace we will not be able maintain export pace from November onwards. To really highlight the reduction of exports, CS Brazil exported 3.5m m/t in August, a record for a single month. However, the speed of these early exports with the indicated smaller crop, will significantly reduce raw sugar exports going forward and Q1 will likely look more like 1.3m m/t per month as supply runs out.


FIRES The recent fires from August/September will also have had an impact on cane quality, which will be seen in the later months of the crush. This will change the mix in favour of ethanol, 52% sugar was the average forecast at the beginning of the year. However, the reality is that with the reduced cane quality - sugar mix could well end up below 49% to sugar, placing ethanol as the favoured route.


26 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2024


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