*
*This chart includes future predictions and estimates. The figures should not be treated as actual data and investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
Source: AP Commodities
THE
MARKETS REMAIN VOLATILE AND THERE IS UPSIDE RISK, TILL THE RAIN COMES BACK WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BE TOO LATE FOR COFFEE AND REMAINS WORRYING FOR CANE.
LATEST SUGAR SUPPLY AND DEMAND - RAW VALUES Our latest Sugar S&D for April/March 24/25 Raw Values, points to a surplus of just 1 mln m/t. As we like to say, there are some good sugar production data, very few stock reports and no data on sugar consumption. We do our best to follow trade etc…, but one has to be careful as sometimes the sugar that was meant to be “here” disappears without a trace!
Last but not least, “Specs” in general have been trading sugar from the short side since April 2024. The exception remains Index Funds. The nett short position is due to a large Gross short which has been floating from 85k to 115k lots since April 2024.
Sugar prices have been trading from low 17sh to about 20 cts since May i.e. the start of the Brazilian harvest. We estimate that producers already priced most of their needs for 2024 and about 40% for 2025. Consumers remain playing cool, buying the dips and remain “unprotected” for 2025 with very little coverage.
So, one has to pay a lot of attention to Brazil, weather and logistics, especially sugar and coffee. The markets remain volatile and there is upside risk, till the
11 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2024
rain comes back which may or may not be too late for coffee and remains worrying for cane.
Speed of knowledge is vital, but one has to evaluate whether the flow of information is correct and likely to happen. Spending time and effort when it comes to agricultural commodities is becoming more important than ever.
Alberto Peixoto E: albertopeixoto@apcommodities. london T: +44(0) 7570 714 981
Sugar stored in the warehouse at sugar mill and ethanol manufacturing Plant, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Photo credit: T Photography / Shutterstock.
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