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Statistically you can prove that technical analysis works and that a particular strategy has an edge. Technical analysis is a powerful tool in the short-term and can improve entries and exits. It is not something new and has been around for hundreds if not thousands of years.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS LARGELY EITHER UNKNOWN OR REGARDED AS SOME SORT OF WIZARDRY OR COSMIC SKILL.


Technical analysis does not forecast future prices, it is a tool that allows users to assign probabilities of prices rising or falling regardless of news. News is a common misconception and I always found it amusing with our IFTM  example), then two hours later a news story would come out    wasn’t as bad as everyone feared.


 market hypothesis’ which states that all the information is in the price and therefore you cannot make money. Numerous academic papers have recognised the death of this theory due to there being ‘fear’ and ‘greed’ in human psychology leading to the market  Vomiting Camel Pattern)


Overall fundamental analysis works eventually; however, you may not remain solvent or hold your job before it does. Using technical analysis in conjunction with fundamentals can give you the much-needed alpha that every Portfolio Manager seeks.


At the STA, we teach a diploma course which I liken to an analogy of a box of tools. There are many tools in the box and some work well together like a hammer and a chisel, but a Phillips    you my tools which might be a plastering trowel and a tub of plaster, no matter how hard you try you won’t get these to work for you and be successful in gaining better entries or exits.


The key to succeeding is to select the tools that work for you. We teach people the tools but also just as important if not more so is the psychology and mindset to use them.


Tom Hicks E: tom@dantomconsulting.com


35 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | March/April 2019


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