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ECONOMIC STORM CLOUDS GATHERING


THE “GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK” AND STOCK


INDEX FUTURES Of course, there is no such thing as the “Global Central Bank,” but if there was, and I am not advocating for one, it should be leaning toward the side of accommodation.


In light of the ongoing trade issues between the U.S. and China, Brexit and other geopolitical uncertainties with their negative impact on global economic growth, now is not the time for tighter credit policies. In fact now is the time for the world’s central banks to move toward accommodation. It is clear that growth in the global economy is slowing.


Chart 1: Downgrades Galore The OECD slashes forecasts for 2019 growth in advanced economies


The Organization for Economic Co-Operation & Development (OECD) cut forecasts again for the global economy in 2019 and 2020, following previous downgrades, as it warned ongoing trade tensions and a further erosion of business and consumer  OECD forecast that the world economy would grow 3.3% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020. These forecasts represent cuts of 0.2 percentage points for 2019 and 0.1 percentage points for 2020, compared to the OECD’s last set of forecasts in November. The global expansion continues to lose momentum, as it downgraded the 2019 GDP forecast for almost every Group of 20 nations, including the U.S., China, the U.K. and many countries in the euro zone.


In its report the OECD said substantial policy uncertainty remains in Europe, including over Brexit, as a disorderly exit would substantially increase the costs for European economies. In addition, the OECD said “Growth outcomes could be weaker still if downside risks materialize or interact.”


In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) scaled back its economic growth forecast for 2019, reducing growth expectations from 3.7% to 3.5%, and the forecast for 2020 fell 0.1% to 3.6%. The IMF  from the European Union, which pose substantial risks to global economic growth.


Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development


18 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | March/April 2019


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