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Megatrends, emerging issues and outlooks


Table 4.5.3: General steps of scenario planning and modes of application in the policy process Phases


Stress Testing (adaptation) Foresight


Identify the plan or strategy and clarify the focus question and indicators of success


Identify key drivers of change and critical uncertainties


Insight


Assess vulnerabilities and opportunities


Identify adaptive actions Action Implement adaptive actions


Monitoring, adaptation and continuous improvement


Source: Swanson et al. 2014


local communities and ecosystems. In addition to providing a new source of data, it makes it easier to persuade people of the consequences of their observations and thus make them more supportive of the resulting policy decisions, thereby enabling the kind of local social and cultural transformation that a sustainable future requires.


4.6 Conclusion


The environmental outlook for North America is unfolding in a context of improved environmental conditions. Because of the rich bounty of natural resources and decades of efforts to remove the most glaring pressures, the state of the region’s air, water, land and biota is quite good. The region has a low environmental burden of disease, one of the richest biodiversity levels in the developed world, and large expanses of majestic natural beauty.


North American responses to environmental challenges reflect the diversity, energy and ingenuity of the region. In some cases, the traditional policy instruments that helped drive the progress of recent decades have begun to focus


on these new challenges. In other cases, less traditional approaches such as public-private


stakeholder coalitions and citizen engagement campaigns are rising to the challenge. The heritage of relying on rigorously collected data, integrated into robust decision- making processes, has been adapted to new forms of data and new situations to address these challenges.


North America has the means and opportunity to provide global leadership in efforts to achieve a sustainable future. A clear way that this can be done is by exhibiting leadership in implementing the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda and the SDGs, both at home and abroad. North Americans can find ways to address the social and cultural implications of transitioning the North American economy to one that is based on resource efficiency and sustainable into the future. Efforts need to focus not only on solving North America’s environmental problems, but also on providing the tools, models, skills and information that developing countries require to deal with their own.


partnerships, multi- Scenario Analysis (forecasting)


Clarify the focus question and indicators of success


Identify key drivers of change and critical uncertainties


Develop array of plausible scenarios Develop array of plausible scenarios


Address the focus question in the context of the plausible scenarios


Identify recommendations Outreach and communication


Visioning (Backcasting)


Clarify the focus question and indicators of success


Identify key drivers of change and critical uncertainties


Develop desired vision of the future


Identify a plan of action that can achieve the desired future


Perform stress test (column 1) of the plan of action


Implement plan of action


Monitoring and scenario updating Monitoring, adaptation and continuous improvement


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