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Figure 4.1.5: Projected temperature change by 2071-2099
The most recent model projections (CMIP5) for temperature change in the US take into account a wider range of options with regard to human behaviour, including a lower scenario than has been considered before (RCP 2.6). This scenario assumes rapid reductions in emissions – more than 70 per cent cuts from current levels by 2050 and further large decreases by 2100 – and the corresponding smaller amount of warming. On the higher end, the scenarios include one that assumes continued increases in emissions (RCP 8.5) and the corresponding greater amount of warming. Also shown are temperature changes for the intermediate scenarios RCP 4.5 (which is most similar to B1) and RCP 6.0. Projections show change in average temperature in the later part of this century (2071-2099) relative to the late part of last century (1970-1999). Source: Walsh et al. 2014