Industry Forecast IC Market in Chinese Mainland in 2023 by Zhigang LU, Tsinghua University and Yun ZHANG, Investment Casting Branch of China Foundry Association T


he global economy affects industrial development, including investment casting. The Organization for Economic


Cooperation and Development (OECD) pointed out that the world economy is expected to grow 2.9% in 2023, due to tighter financial conditions, weak trade growth and consumer confidence, and growth will slow to 2.7% in 2024. China, the world's second largest economy, has a relatively good performance in 2023, maintaining a certain growth. The IMF raised its forecast for China's GDP growth in 2023 to 5.4% from its previous estimate of 5%, while raising its forecast for 2024. The OECD raised its forecast for China's GDP growth in 2023 to 5.2%. The development of manufacturing industry


has a more direct relationship with the investment casting market. China is the world's largest manufacturing country, and its performance is very important. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, from January to November, the value added of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.3% year-on-year, of which, value added rate of were +12.3% in the automobile industry, +6.9% in the areas of railway, shipping and aerospace. There are also some sectors in decline, with real estate development investment down 9.4% year on year. In the first 11 months of 2023, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports fell by 5.6%. Figure 1 shows the change in the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in China.


China's Aviation Market The aviation industry has been an important market segment for investment casting. 2023 is the year of the gradual recovery of the overall operation of China's civil aviation. From January to October, the passenger transport volume reached 520 million, an increase of 136%, close to the scale of 554 million passengers in the same period in 2019. According to the China Air Transport Association, the annual volume of civil aviation passenger transport in China reached about 620 million passengers, 35% higher than the expectation at the beginning of the year (460 million passengers), and recovered to 94% in 2019. The development of the air transport industry has


stimulated the increase in the demand for aircraft. Airbus forecasts that air passenger traffic in China will grow at an


26 ❘ January 2024 ® Figure 1: Growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in 2023.


average annual rate of 5.2% over the next two decades, faster than any other global civil aviation market. Based on this, it is expected that the number of new aircraft delivered to China in the future will exceed 9,400. The import of aircraft to China's civil aviation will make an important contribution to the global investment casting market. With the development of China's own aviation manufacturing industry, it will also stimulate the local investment casting market.


China’s Automobile Market Automobile is also an important market area for investment casting. China is the world's largest automobile producer. According to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2023, China's automobile production completed 27 million, an increase of 10%. According to this calculation, China's total automobile production in 2023 will be about 30 million. The widespread popularity of automobiles in China has driven the market of automobile parts manufacturing. At the same time, China's new energy vehicle industry is developing rapidly, from January to November 2023, China's new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 34.5% and 36.7%, and the production of new energy vehicles will exceed 9 million. New energy vehicles reduce the demand for investment castings, which is a matter of concern.


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