Like the Aerospace industry,
traffic is a factor that plays into automobile production and sales. Many telecommuters have returned to the office and the family road trip is making a comeback. Traffic, or Passenger Vehicle Miles, reflects good recovery from the pandemic. Estimated miles driven for 2023 were 3,233 billion, which is less than one percentage point shy of pre- pandemic levels.
Supply chain issues, most notably the semi-conductor chip shortage, seems to be behind us. Dealer incentives are back to offset interest rates and higher sticker prices on new vehicles. Additionally, the price of fuel really isn’t prohibitive, as we have gotten used to paying three dollars and change per gallon.
So, conditions seem right for market
growth, and they are, as is evidenced by the 5.7% YoY growth in U.S. auto and light truck assemblies the industry realized in 2023. With 2023 investment casting sales of $380 million, a 3.3% increase over 2022, one would think that the outlook was favorable.
Well, for Electric Vehicle (EV)
production it is very favorable. In 2023, there were 5,486 EVs produced in the United States. By 2025, the number of EVs in production are expected to exceed 44,000 units. Considering that the majority of today’s EVs do not employ the use of investment castings in their manufacturing process, it becomes evident that Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) powered vehicles are about to enter a period of rapid decline.
When you net off forecast EV
assemblies from total U.S. auto and light truck assemblies, what remains are ICE powered vehicles. On this basis, ICE powered vehicles are expected to realize
Continued on pg 16 January 2024 ❘ 15 ®
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