Industry Forecast Continued from pg 15
declines of 7.5%, 7.9% and 15.4% in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively. This is a 4-year CAGR of -10.3%.
Since all internal combustion engines are not the same, you cannot draw a direct correlation between this rate of decline and that of investment castings, but suffice it to say, investment casting sales will decline.
Automotive Summary With little more than this data to go on, we will use the estimated 7.5% decline as a factor in formulating our 2024 forecast for this sector. Applying this factor to 2023 estimated investment casting sales of $380 million puts the forecast for 2024 at $360 million.
Once we have established which
ICE models are being replaced, we will be in a better position to refine this data.
General Industry In general, aggregate North American investment casting sales to the General Industry Market Segment have been considered to correlate closely with the rate of industrial production, which on a rolling 12 month basis was 0.33%.
Individual subsector performance
can deviate from this rule of thumb. To ensure that we provide the reader with a more accurate representation of actual industry performance, the ICI solicits industry performance data from its members via survey as well as through direct conversation. Of the subsectors addressed, only Medical Implants data was derived from secondary sources.
Applying the growth rates for 2023
to existing 2022 data, it is estimated that 2023 investment casting sales to the General Industry sector totaled $850 million. This represents 1% annual
16 ❘ January 2024 ®
Summary When taking all markets into consideration, 2023 sales are estimated at $7.1 billion, representing a 13.6%
North American Report
growth. Applying the same methodology to the 2023 estimate, the forecast for 2024 is approximately $890 million, representing a YoY growth rate of 5%.
growth. The outlook for 2024 is currently forecast at $8.0 billion, or 13.9% growth over the prior year.
A detailed market review will be
prepared and presented at this year’s Business and Leadership Development Conference.
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