BUSINESS NEWS
Analyst Daniel Roeska says: ‘I would not worry about the big six [European airlines] – Air France-KLM, Lufthansa, IAG, Ryanair, easyJet, Wizz – but for everyone else it will be hunting season’
Aviation’s recovery will be ‘long and painful’
Analysts don’t expect high demand across Europe this summer. Ian Taylor reports He noted: “Majorca opened to
Leading aviation analysts have dismissed hopes of “a wave of leisure travel” sweeping Europe this summer, warning the recovery will be “long and painful”. They forecast bankruptcies among
airlines if governments don’t prop them up, but said Ryanair and Wizz will soar and suggested “prices will be low”. Daniel Roeska, managing director
and senior analyst at Bernstein Research, said: “We’ve seen airlines consecutively taking scheduling off
48 20 MAY 2021
the table and that will continue. I’m not a proponent of the idea there will be a wave of leisure demand sweeping air travel. It will be a long and painful recovery.” Roeska told a Capa Centre
for Aviation online summit: “Our expectation of Q3 [July to September] is that we may get to 50% [of Europe’s 2019 traffic] on short-haul and 40% on long-haul if all goes well. “But we won’t get anywhere near
2019 levels until mid-2022 for leisure and 2024-25 for business.”
Germans at Easter and Eurowings tripled its flights but only reached half the traffic of 2019 when Majorca was the only beach and sun region Germans could go to.” Albert Muntane Casanova,
aviation advisory director at Japanese bank MUFG, agreed saying: “Planned schedules for Q4 this year and Q1 next are at the levels of 2018-19.
Continued on page 46
travelweekly.co.uk
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