Continued from page 48
“That does not make sense at all – 2018-19 were the best years ever in demand. It’s completely unrealistic and that is a big concern.” Both analysts forecast a
wave of bankruptcies. Casanova noted: “So far, many airlines have managed to survive because they could adjust operations and not lose slot rights at congested airports. Now we see regulation creeping back and it will prevent airlines being flexible. They will have to preserve cash and lose slots or preserve slots and burn cash.” Roeska agreed “slot
regulation is the number-one issue.” He added: “We’ll also have furlough schemes running out, and connecting passengers and business traffic will be a lot smaller. “So there will be pressures to
fly more and more seats available for leisure. It may be great to fly, because prices will be low, but it will endanger medium-sized airlines. I would not worry about the big six – Air France- KLM, Lufthansa, IAG, Ryanair, easyJet, Wizz – but for everyone else it will be hunting season. “If slot waivers and furlough
schemes are extended to March 2022, then winter can be OK and airlines at risk may survive. Then we’ll see a wave of bankruptcies in winter 2022-23.” The alternative, he said “is
for Europe to end up with a bunch of Alitalias”. Roeska forecast: “There is
a two to three-year runway for low-cost airlines to hit the gas pedal while bigger airlines fix their balance sheets. Wizz and Ryanair will take new planes and
start growing.” i Capa Summit, page 47
Tui vows to ‘serve choice’ and fly to amber destinations
Tui will take UK customers to destinations categorised amber under the traffic light system, chief executive Fritz Joussen confirmed. “We’re not a business to tell
people they can’t go,” he said. “We’re a business to follow the
rules and to serve customers. If a customer comes to the conclusion
they want to go, who are we to say?” He said: “No one can say we
don’t put safety first. When you put a country to amber, you put a lot of obligations on the customer – a lot of tests and quarantine. You have a choice. We serve choice.” Speaking as Tui reported a
half-year loss of €1.3 billion to the end of March, Joussen criticised the restricted opening, describing the UK as “a bit of an obstacle”. He said: “Vaccination is high,
incidence is very low, but the country is very cautious.” Yet he added: “Maybe this will change
Fritz Joussen
in the next few weeks, otherwise people in Europe will all make a vacation except the UK.” Tui plans to operate 75% of its 2019 capacity this summer.
O’Leary tips green light for Spain and Greece
Ian Taylor
Ryanair forecast “a strong recovery” this summer, with group chief executive Michael O’Leary predicting Greece and Spain will be added to the UK green list of destinations from June. O’Leary reported bookings
“returning in very strong volumes to Portugal, Greece and Spain”. He dismissed the fact that Greece
and Spain remain on the amber list saying: “People are looking beyond the short term. They will be coming [to Greece and Spain] in June, July and August. We expect Greece will be added to the green list by the end of May. Spain will be a bit behind but will be added from June.” The Ryanair chief praised the UK
government for its vaccination rollout, noting “the UK has been leading in reducing restrictions”, but he said: “The rest of Europe is catching up. It looks like 80% of the UK population will be fully vaccinated by the end of
46 20 MAY 2021
Michael O’Leary
June. The majority of EU countries will have given 80% of the population one dose by the end of June.” O’Leary noted: “In the first week
of April, we took just under 500,000 bookings. Last week, we took 1.5 million. That is very strong.” He acknowledged: “It’s still way
below where we would be normally. In pre-Covid times we would be doing 2.5 million bookings a week [and] have about 60% of bookings in for the summer now.” Yet he insisted: “People are
booking in very strong numbers.
They think it will be fine by the school holidays. We’ll have a strong recovery. We expect to carry 1.6 million passengers in May. June is probably heading to four million. In July, it could be seven to nine million, so two-thirds of normal volume, and that will grow in August and September unless there is some significant unforeseen factor. “We expect perhaps 90% of
pre-Covid volumes in the third quarter [October to December]. [But] long-haul is not going to see a recovery this summer.” He noted: “Prices are lower than
normal, but we’ll happily accept low pricing in return for a strong recovery. Let’s repair the volumes first and then the pricing.” However, O’Leary said Ryanair
would probably reduce its capacity for the summer, noting: “We’ll probably cut back from 80% to 65%-70%.” O’Leary was speaking as Ryanair
reported a loss of €815 million for the 12 months to March.
travelweekly.co.uk
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