BUSINESS NEWS Eurocontrol report: Air navigation body assesses revival of European aviation. Ian Taylor reports


Europe’s aviation recovery ‘will not unwind’ in 2022


European air traffic “recovered solidly” by the end of last year and the growth “will not unwind” in 2022, according to European air navigation body Eurocontrol. It reported “a partial but crucially


sustained traffic recovery in Europe” with traffic growing from 36% of 2019 levels last January to 70% in the summer as flight numbers hit a two- year high on August 27 before rising to 81% of 2019 levels in late October. Eurocontrol noted December


traffic remained at 78% of 2019’s level despite additional restrictions and hit 81% in the second half of the month. However, it also reported “all


airlines [are] facing lower load factors, averaging 50%-60%”. Eamonn Brennan, Eurocontrol


director general, noted: “The situation remains enormously challenging. The unfolding Omicron situation is pushing many of Europe’s airlines to cut capacity by up to 30% in January and we’re starting to see flights cancelled due to Covid-19 exposure among crew members.” Yet he insisted: “As soon as the


Passenger totals tipped to trail upturn in flights


Air passenger numbers continue to lag the recovery in air traffic, with Eurocontrol noting 2021 ended with flight numbers down 44% on 2019 but passenger numbers down 60%. It blamed “the use of smaller aircraft and low load factors” and


travelweekly.co.uk


Passenger numbers last year were 60% down on 2019


warned: “This trend is likely to persist with . . . passenger levels in Europe only expected to recover fully to 2019 volumes by 2025,


Ryanair operated more capacity late last year than in 2019


situation improves, we expect a rapid rebound [to] closer to 2019 levels.” Eurocontrol reported: “Summer


2021 delivered a better-than-expected recovery . . . [and] the European aviation network remained at between -20% and -25% of 2019 levels, unlike in 2020 when the summer bounce was followed by a precipitous drop”. It added: “Low-cost carriers


recovered quicker over the summer than traditional carriers, with some operating at 2019 levels since August.” Ryanair ended the year as Europe’s


busiest airline having increased capacity to “above 100% of 2019 levels in the closing months of the year”. By contrast, easyJet flight numbers in December remained 33% down on 2019 and British Airways’ 46% down.


EasyJet traffic over the year was


64% down on 2019 and BA owner IAG 57% down compared with 43% at Ryanair. Total traffic across Europe was 56% of 2019 levels in 2021, but UK traffic was 62% down compared with 50% in Germany, 44% in Spain and 42% in France. Ireland and Finland also lost 62% and Sweden and Denmark were not far behind “with very weak intra-Scandinavian traffic”. By contrast, air traffic to and from Greece was just 27% down year on year, Turkey 30% down and Cyprus 34% down. Eurocontrol noted the financial


impacts “remain huge”, with Europe’s carriers losing €18.5 billion in 2021 on top of €22 billion in losses in 2020.


one to two years after Eurocontrol forecasts flights will mostly recover to 2019 levels.” Amsterdam Schiphol finished


the year as Europe’s busiest airport with 45% fewer flights than in 2019. Traffic at Heathrow was 59% down on 2019 compared with 49% at Frankfurt, Paris Charles de Gaulle and Madrid. In December, Heathrow’s traffic


recovered to just 35% down on 2019 but remained behind Amsterdam (-20%), Paris Charles de Gaulle


Eurocontrol notes Omicron impact on its forecasts


Europe’s air traffic is “on track to recover to 70%-90% of 2019 levels” by the end of this year “even if the evolving pandemic is pushing traffic much closer to our baseline forecast”, Eurocontrol reports. The air navigation body’s latest


report notes the Omicron wave of the pandemic “has seen traffic fall away from our optimistic forecast”. Eurocontrol’s most-recent


forecast – based on scenarios characterised as ‘high’, ‘baseline’ and ‘low’ – is of a recovery to 2019 levels of traffic by 2023 (‘high’), 2024 (‘baseline’) or 2027 (‘low’). It notes: “The risk aviation


currently faces is that the ‘low’ scenario cannot be fully ruled out. “States are confronted with


the need to accelerate booster campaigns or target [people reluctant] to be vaccinated. The risk that governments will reintroduce lockdowns, travel restrictions or other measures [to tackle new variants] can’t be ruled out.” However, Eurocontrol insists:


“All scenarios predict an eventual recovery to normal or close to normal traffic levels by 2024-25.”


and Frankfurt (-24%) and Madrid (-26%). Heathrow lost the highest number of flights, 283,000, of any European airport in 2021, followed by Munich which lost 264,000. Manchester was the hardest hit in


percentage of flight traffic, with two- thirds (67%) fewer flights in 2021 than 2019. Munich and Dusseldorf were on -64%, Helsinki -63%, Dublin -62%, Stockholm -61% and Stansted -53%. By contrast, Athens recovered to -31%, Palma and Nice to -35% and Malaga to -38%.


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PICTURE: Shutterstock/Yaroslav Astakhov


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