BUSINESS NEWS


Second Covid wave hinders Iata push for passenger tests


The surge in Covid-19 infections and lockdowns across Europe has knocked aviation industry efforts to convince governments to move rapidly to testing travellers. Airline association Iata has


urged governments to introduce rapid pre-departure Covid tests, but Iata director general Alexandre de Juniac said: “The new waves [of infection] are not facilitating our job. “We have to bring an even more-


robust testing proposal to convince health authorities and governments to replace quarantines.” Iata has previously argued


for the use of antigen tests which detect the molecules that stimulate


Alexandre de Juniac


an immune response to Covid. However, these are less sensitive to detecting Covid-19 than PCR tests and the World Health Organization advises against their use “for airport or border screening”. De Juniac explained: “Antigen


tests meet the criteria of speed and cost, but not reliability. What has to be approved is both the test and the protocol for testing. “It’s a precondition to convince


governments to open borders without a threat to reimport the virus.”


Iata warns some long-haul routes may prove economically unviable


Bookings for the Canary Islands “jumped enormously” when the government lifted quarantine rules from October 25, Iata reported. Chief economist Brian Pearce


said the leap in bookings confirmed restrictions “determine whether people travel”, but warned there is now a “real challenge” to the economic viability of some routes. Pearce said: “There are clear


signs of a willingness to fly. UK bookings to the Canary Islands jumped by 112% year on year when the UK lifted quarantine restrictions – evidence that if it’s possible to travel, people will.” He reported international air travel was down 89% on 2019 in


September, whereas domestic air travel worldwide was down only 43%, and said: “Domestic markets show people want to fly again. International markets are restricted even where we have green lanes.” However, Iata’s most-recent


market analysis showed Europe remained the most-resilient international market in September. Pearce said: “What recovery we


had seen was within Europe.” He warned: “In the fourth quarter,


we’ll see a pretty sharp setback. Airlines are still burning through cash so government support is critical. Business travel is extremely low. That is a real challenge to the economic viability of some long-haul routes.”


‘Vaccine can bring recovery by 2024’ 65%


Ian Taylor


A full recovery in Europe’s air traffic by 2024 depends on a Covid vaccine being widely available by summer 2021, according to European air traffic management body Eurocontrol. A delay in producing and


distributing an effective vaccine or a “patchy uptake” could delay a full recovery until 2026 or even 2029, Eurocontrol warned. In its latest five-year forecast,


the organisation proposed three scenarios for recovery from the crisis. The most-optimistic forecast, of


a recovery to 2019 levels by 2024, assumes “a vaccine is widely available for travellers by summer 2021”. Should a vaccine only be


available or the pandemic end by summer 2022, Eurocontrol forecasts a recovery to 2019’s level may be


travelweekly.co.uk


Decrease in number of flights in Europe from March to Oct v 2019


pushed back to 2026. In the worst- case scenario – no effective vaccine and the infection lingers – recovery could be delayed until 2029. If a vaccine is available next year,


Eurocontrol expects sufficient testing facilities to be in place for passengers and the return of “relatively good passenger confidence” by mid-2021, but with some travellers – including business travellers – still reluctant to fly. It forecasts a delay in the restart


of some long-haul routes, with North Atlantic routes likely to resume first. In the worst-case scenario,


“patchy uptake” of a vaccine makes


it “difficult for airlines to operate as pre-Covid” and “some regions experience renewed outbreaks”. In these circumstances, demand would “bounce back from 60%-70% of travellers” by mid-2022 but there would be a “permanent drop in propensity to fly”. Eurocontrol noted the number of


flights in Europe between March and October this year was down by 65% on 2019, representing a return to “pre- 1990 flight levels”, and reported the limited return to flying has been “driven by larger states maintaining traffic more strongly [through] a mix of repatriation, cargo and domestic flights”. The organisation discounts


the risk of Brexit, noting: “We have assumed continued transport connectivity will be ensured. “Businesses and individuals


operating in the UK should see no change to existing conditions.”


Eurocontrol says the speed of aviation’s recovery will depend on availability and take-up of a vaccine


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