Base Oil Report
As with most refinery products, the base oil market experienced huge prices losses throughout the fourth quarter of 2014, and further decreases appear likely in the opening stages of 2015.
The primary reason for this downturn is of course the well documented collapse in crude oil prices. With all refinery products showing corresponding price falls, vacuum gasoil and base oils have been no different.
Buyers have been acutely aware of the substantial decreases to feedstock prices and expect to see immediate reflections in base oil prices.
The effect on European refiners has been mixed. Some, particularly those located inland that face higher transportation costs (and therefore narrower margins) and also longer lead times, have struggled. As buyers expect crude oil price decreases to be reflected in real time, refiners are being forced to discount base oils that were produced from crude oil purchased earlier, at higher prices.
Yet other refineries appear to be more comfortable, and many have spoken of the
need to further price reductions to quickly establish a new norm that corresponds with current feedstock levels. Many refiners are running flat-out, taking advantage of the low feedstock costs and also the fact the base oil prices have not decreased proportionally by as much as some of other products, such as naphtha.
As well as upstream weakness, the base oil market has also been negatively affected by underwhelming demand, linked to the struggling European economy. Early-2015 demand has been encouraging, but it remains to be seen if this persists beyond a brief restocking period, and whether lower prices will help; automotive lubricant demand is not price-driven.
The European Group I base oil industry has also begun to suffer from competition with Group II and Group III material, particularly the former. Group II imports from Chevron’s Pascagoula, Mississippi, plant have been available at competitive prices and, in an oversupplied European marketplace, it is Group I that is always going to lose out.
The aforementioned high operating rates at a time of low demand and competition
with higher quality material has seen some very large
discounts given, and repeated, for Group I cargoes in the export
markets. Buyers in key export destinations appear even more price savvy and are determined never to pay over the odds, often delayed deals as upstream costs slide further. Here, too, competition with Group II is fierce.
As had been long expected, competition with other base oil Groups have led to the announced closures of a number of European Group I refineries. However, such is weak outlook for Group I that these moves are expected to balance the market at best, rather than tighten supplies and increase prices.
Ross Yeo Senior Editor Manager (Europe) ICIS
LINK
www.icis.com
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