impact of the pandemic on different businesses also depended on the size and location within the company life cycle. Companies building up production were hit hard during both waves, due to the lower capital stock at hand, while those companies which had been up and running for some time were less affected during the second wave than during the first.


What about the lubricant industry? From the point of view of the lubricant industry, the sectors that were hit hardest by the pandemics were the sectors that drive – directly or indirectly – the largest portion of lubricant demand, namely the automotive and the aerospace industry which, due to the decrease in mobility and tourism activities, experienced substantial hits.


trend is expected to continue, as recovery measures linked to the green transition are incentivising investments in this sector.


Overall, the European lubricant market shrank by 11% in 2020. Even if not all countries and product segments were affected to the same extent, the high-level industry footprint did not significantly change. The five largest European markets, Germany, UK, France, Spain and Italy accounted for more than 75% of the total market. The split between automotive and industrial was approximately 50-50 and has oscillated around these values for the past 10 years or more.


While all segments were impacted, metalworking fluids was the segment contracting most, due to the combined effect of the plunging demand in the automotive and aerospace industries, which were the most severely affected sectors by the pandemic, and lower demand from the primary metal sector, which impacted rolling oils.


Figure 2: Lubricant demand 2020 (source: UEIL)


The supply chains of the European automotive industries were already disrupted by the first shutdowns of Chinese factories in the beginning of 2020. More severe, however, was the impact of factory shutdowns in Europe between March and May. Across Europe, automotive factories were closed for an average of 30 days, with the shortest downtime in Sweden (15 days) and the longest in Italy (41 days). Overall, in 2020, the passenger car market contracted by 23.7% and the commercial vehicle market shrank by 18.9%.


An interesting aspect is that the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated and amplified the ongoing trends in the automotive industry, in particular the growth of the electric vehicle market. Firstly, consumer behaviour has been changing towards more private mobility instead of public mobility to reduce infection risks, and at the same time, regulators have intensified activities for climate protection in the mobility sector. As a result, in 2020 hybrid electric vehicles made up 11.9% of the total passenger car sales across the EU, up from 5.7% in 2019 and electrically-chargeable vehicles saw a similar surge in demand, accounting for 10.5% of all new car registrations in the European Union, compared to a 3% market share in 2019. This


All five major markets experienced a significant contraction, with Germany being the most severely impacted market. It is difficult to pinpoint a single factor behind the geographic differences in demand drop, as this was the result of concurring factors, such as the extent of lockdown measures, the specificity of the country’s industrial tissue, as well as the extent and impact of supply chain disruptions.


Figure 3: Lubricant sales volumes 2010-2020 (Europe)


2022: a resurgence? Looking forward, the EU economy is already rebounding from the pandemic recession faster than expected. During 2021, as vaccination campaigns progressed and restrictions started to be lifted, growth resumed in spring and continued unabated through summer, underpinned by the re-opening of the economy. At almost 14% in annual terms, the rate of GDP growth in the EU in the second quarter


Continued on page 44 LUBE MAGAZINE NO.167 FEBRUARY 2022 43


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