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Whatever 2040 looks like, eMobility will naturally evolve fastest within large cities. Denser populations and expensive space give sharing services instant appeal; connected and autonomous driving offers efficiencies; anti-pollution measures are embraced.


Lubricant market opportunities Respected forecasts show lubricant usage growth beyond 2040, with eMobility impacting market size less than factors such as vehicle population growth, sump size and drain interval. 80% of the global car parc will still need traditional oil changes in 2040, but CASE will influence how and what we sell; shaping sales channels, partnerships and desirable lubricant properties.


Maintenance will likely be provided by fewer, larger companies, as responsibility for maintenance shifts from consumers to mobility service providers as a B2B sell. This could generate much larger, consolidated pieces of business for oil marketers to win. This may in turn prompt oil company consolidation, creating larger companies or encouraging those with truly distinctive propositions.


Consumer retail is likely to decline, leaving most vulnerable those companies currently relying heavily on B2C. Actual driving skills may one day become the province of retro enthusiasts. In this environment lubricants promising a better driving experience, or those promoted through motorsport, will find less relevance. Fluids providing lower cost of ownership and increased running time may find greater success.


Unexpected alliances and partnerships could arise. Future mobility providers might be today’s automakers; hire companies; logistics experts; tech companies; or perhaps an as yet unknown organisation. As Qualcomm points out, ‘self-driving cars and smart traffic management in expanding cities will create new industries we haven’t yet imagined.’


Investing in the future eMobility 2040 is already being shaped by those investing in the right places. Sales, service models and energy sources will evolve – so too must lubricants.


Many of today’s hybrids and EVs use existing engine oils and transmission fluids, but the degree of electrification – how much power comes from the battery – will stretch fluid requirements. Dedicated electrified lubricants are already available.


Future duty cycles for connected, autonomous, shared and electric vehicles could be unrecognisable, with dramatic rises in operating hours, transformed driving styles and platooning.


Signs are everywhere that our opening short story is more science vision than science fiction. Afton is keeping one eye on the distant future as we work to create tomorrow’s fluids. How on the CASE are you?


LINK www.aftonchemical.com


16


LUBE MAGAZINE NO.151 JUNE 2019


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