Catering
The UK has been hit with bird flu outbreaks since October 2024. Since then, nearly 1.8 million farmed and captive birds have been culled, which has already reduced the flock size by 5 per cent, and strict biosecurity measures and zoning restrictions make rapid recovery difficult. Increased feed costs are also complicating the situation, driven by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with a reduction in cereal planting across the EU in 2024.
Compounding the price challenges, the British poultry industry is making strides towards improved animal welfare. Many poultry producers have reduced stocking densities from 38kg/sqm to the Red Tractor recommendation of 30kg/sqm. While this change is beneficial for animal welfare, it has reduced the number of birds raised within the same housing space by 20 per cent. As such, prices are likely to remain high.
The situation is reflected in the egg industry, where prices have risen by almost 20 per cent since the start of the year. Reduced flock sizes due to bird flu have resulted in reduced egg supply, impacting prices. Higher feed prices, which account for approximately 65 per cent of total egg production costs, along with increasing fuel costs, are contributing to the overall price surge, as is the ongoing transition to cage-free egg production. Moving to higher welfare barn-reared eggs will incur a price increase of around 12 per cent; for free range eggs, the price increase is approximately 31 per cent.
Looking ahead Faced with a number of unique challenges, the food sector will be impacted by a larger proportion than most of the estimated £5 bn total increased costs across the retail sector. Consequently, household food inflation is forecasted to rise to around five per cent
by the end of 2025. This estimate does not account for additional occurrences of unpredictable weather, disease outbreaks, or potential changes in international trade policies. Should any of these factors worsen, the inflation rate could be even higher.
What can caterers do to mitigate rising food prices? While around five per cent is a figure care home catering teams can realistically forecast for food inflation in 2025, there are steps that can be taken to stretch budgets and mitigate both current and future price increases.
There are three key areas for caterers to focus on when it comes to coping with food inflation – supply chain management, operational processes, and menus. Supply chain management can be used
very effectively to ease food inflation costs. Tendering of suppliers can be productive to ensure the most preferable pricing while still maintaining or even enhancing quality and yield. It allows for the direct comparison of suppliers against one another based on specific criteria. This means care home caterers can identify beneficial changes and opportunities. However, continuous supplier management can help caterers even more to mitigate price fluctuations in the food sector. Employing a dedicated procurement organisation to oversee the supply chain can play a pivotal role in securing competitive pricing and providing assurance to the catering function. This strategic approach not only streamlines these critical processes but also allows the catering function to concentrate on its core operations. Consolidating the number of suppliers
July 2025
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within a catering portfolio may reduce the number of deliveries to a single site while also enhancing purchase volumes and delivery values. This makes it easier to negotiate preferential pricing and reduce the overall cost of goods. And why limit consolidation to suppliers? It can also be applied to range management, where a review of a care home’s buying list can help consolidate duplicate lines. This will mean volumes on key lines increase, making the product catalogue, menus, and spend more consistent. It may also flag that there are more cost-effective pack sizes or lead to identifying opportunities for less wastage. Operational practices should also be
assessed and adjusted to reduce their financial impact and deliver benefits and efficiencies. For example, ready prepped veg can be up to 50 per cent more expensive than loose boxed veg. Consider using a sandwich supplier and save some of your payroll costs by tasking chefs to prep other core ingredients. This is all about using time more efficiently and reducing the cost of the ingredients.
Measuring and reducing waste is also
a consideration for any care catering operation. It will inevitably help eliminate unnecessary costs as well as helping to reduce your carbon footprint. Are portion sizes appropriate or do they need to be adjusted? Can food waste produce such as peelings or stale bread be used rather than thrown away? Batch cook to use up leftovers and increase efficiencies from both an ingredient and an operations point of view. Effectively planning and managing
recipes and menus can significantly support cost reduction. Exploring more
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