Market analysis


commissioned for providers wishing to either buy an existing home or build a new one, with as many of them moving away from the initiative due to high competition levels as those that rub their hands together with joy at the opportunity that the location offers.


This has been the same throughout our history providing these reports and does not look as if it will change.


How extensions have helped the availability of care home beds While care home closures have outnumbered openings, the older age population has, of course, increased greatly. According to Government ONS data, the 75+ population stood at around 4.5 million in 2015 and grew to 5.4 million in 2023, an increase of more than 20 per cent. This has meant that the number of beds


available for this population has reduced from around 89 per thousand in 2015 to 74 per thousand this year, a reduction of 17 per cent.


So, if we have been losing more beds from closures than we have gained from openings, why is the decrease in supply levels less than the population growth?


Extensions There are over 6,000 care homes from 2015 who are still trading under their original CQC registration and, of these, around 1,000 have added a total of 7,250 beds to their registration. There have also been around 600 sales of homes to new owners, some of whom would also have added to the registrations at the point of purchase, and so have between them all increased by around 2,000 the number of beds currently


Overall availability of beds on a local basis is also a key issue


available against 2015. This still means that current availability


of beds is still around 17 per cent lower than it was eight years ago and will continue to reduce on current trends. ONS continues to forecast a further 20 per cent growth in the 75+ population by 2033 and, if current opening and closure trends continue, without further extensions at the level we have seen over recent years, beds per thousand will drop to around 60, one third below that of 2015. One possible saving grace – for the population if not the care home sector – is the hope that research into dementia treatment will be developed so that the disease is slowed if not eradicated, and the


43% 74% 31%


17% 10%


2023 37%


12% 7%


2033 Forecast based on average net change in care homes (openings minus closures) over previous five years Chart 4: Market share by care sector 2023 and 2033 38 www.thecarehomeenvironment.com April 2024 44% 81%


Residential dementia Nursing dementia Residential Nursing


need for a person living with dementia to enter a care home will reduce.


Reference 1 https://csi-marketintelligence.co.uk/ shwg.html


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Mike Short


After many years in senior management consultancy across other industries, Mike has been involved in the care sector since 2009.


Mike and his company CSI Market Intelligence have been quoted as ‘the best source of market data across the social care sector’. Mike has a successful track record in working with clients to identify locations for a new development, whether or not to progress a purchase opportunity based on local market conditions, or how to improve a home’s performance through marketing. Mike lives with his wife of 40 plus


years, Sue, a care trainer, in ‘sunny’ Worthing, West Sussex.


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