NUTRITION ▶▶▶


EU compound feed production down by 0.9%


EU compound feed production in 2019 is estimated at 161.7 million tons, i.e. 0.9% lower than in 2018, according to data provided by FEFAC members.


P BY MARIEKE PLOEGMAKERS


ig feed production is expected to have decreased by 0.9 % in 2019 (the final figures are not yet in). De- spite export opportunities (e.g. the trade dispute between China and the USA and the prevalence of


ASF in many Asian countries), EU pork production increased only slightly. The EU countries that benefited most from those ASF outbreaks recorded a dramatic increase in production: 15% in Romania and 9% in Bulgaria.


Poultry feed production is expected to have increased by just 0.1% in 2019, which is well below the expected rise in poultry meat production that was expected (+ 2.5%). This may be due to a sharp increase in poultry meat imports, especially from Brazil as well as feed efficiency gains. EU poultry feed


production remains the leading segment of EU industrial compound feed production, well ahead of pig feed.


As regards cattle feed, the poor stocks of forage resulting from the 2018 drought and heat waves led to a significant in- crease in the compound feed demand for cattle in the first quarter of 2019. For the rest of the year, normal weather con- ditions, together with increasing restrictions on phosphorous emissions in certain countries, resulted in a 2.3% annual fall in demand for cattle feed in 2019 compared to 2018. The largest decrease is reported in Ireland (-15%), followed by the UK (-7%)


Outlook for 2020


This year, demand for poultry feed will be mostly affected by the extent to which Brazil recovers its leading position in the global poultry meat market after a meat fraud scandal two years ago, which could make it possible to resume exports to the EU, leading to reduced EU production. The demand for poultry feed is expected to vary within a range of -0.5 to +1.5%. The demand for pig feed is expected to remain stable in ASF-free countries in the EU, boosted by increased market demand from third countries. On the other hand, it is unlikely that countries with ASF cases on domestic pig farms will man- age to reverse the trend. In addition, the pig sector is experi- encing strong pressure to reduce its emissions in the Nether- lands, which may result in the decimation of herds. As a result, pig feed production is expected to remain stable in 2020 in the “best case” scenario. Of course, should ASF spread to lead- ing pig producing countries (Spain, Germany, Denmark or the Netherlands), the outlook for 2020 may be dramatically worse. All in all, industrial compound feed production is likely to remain stable in 2020, with a +/- 2% uncertainty margin due to the many unpredictable parameters involved.


Table 1 (mio.t)


Cattle feed Pig feed


Poultry feed Total


Industrial compound feed production is likely to remain stable in 2020. 22


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2018 47 51


55,5 163


2019 45,5 50,5 56


161,5


%Var 2019/2018 -2 -1


0,1 -0,9


PHOTO: SUNITA SAHOTA


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