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Issue 8 2018 - FBJNA


///WASHINGTON


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related to international


trade,” said Hamilton. Hamilton’s analysis is


specifically focused on goods and commodities produced and exported from Washington. The potential impact of tariffs grows further when one considers cargoes


The Port of Vancouver is seeking new customers in the clean and green energy sector. (Port of Vancouver photo)


not produced in


the state but handled by Washington’s ports. The state does not produce soybeans, for example, but they are consolidated at Washington ports prior to shipment. Soybeans is one area where Washington ports have already seen an impact from retaliatory tariffs. “We have seen a significant


falloff in soybean exports,” said Alex Strogen, chief commercial officer at the Port of Vancouver, Washington.


“Almost all of our soybeans are destined for China. In October, the harvest shifts into high gear and we would expect large volumes of shipments in the fourth quarter and into the first quarter but they’re not coming.” Overall soybean shipments


out of Vancouver are off 36% compared to last year. Smaller Asian markets may pick up some of the slack, but not much. “The supply chain has become congested,” said Strogen. “Silos and rail cars on the Great Plains, the upper Mississippi Valley, and ports are full of soybeans and they’re just not moving.” Vancouver also handles


tens of thousands of Subaru auto imports every year, so


that the possibility that the president will slap tariffs on imported vehicles—a matter currently being investigated by the Department of Commerce—also leaves Strogen fretting. On the bright side, steel volumes at the port have remained consistent and wheat and corn exports are still looking good. The Port of Everett also


handles soybean imports but is not as exposed to the China trade as is Vancouver. “Most of our soy exports go to the South Pacific,” said Lefeber,


“but business and trade issues have affected our ability to growth this business.” Soybeans and cars are pass-


through exports that support some transportation and logistics jobs in Washington state, but


the potential


impact of tariffs is bigger with products that are actually produced in and exported from within the state, according to Hamilton. While total Washington exports


to


China amount to $18 billion, exports produced in-state total about $13.5 billion.


“We have seen a significant falloff


in soybean exports. Almost all of our soybeans are destined for China.” -- Alex Strogen, Port of Vancouver.


Aerospace accounts for $10.4 billion of this total, and almost all of Washington’s aerospace exports consist of commercial aircraft that were contracted for years ago from Boeing.


“If China decided to impose


tariffs on our aerospace exports, they would probably just be adding a tax on their commercial imports of airplanes,” said Hamilton. “The bigger threat is not tariffs but that China will not purchase Boeing planes in the future. China has not signed an order to buy any Boeing commercial aircraft so far this year. That might be a coincidence but it could be a form of non-tariff retaliation.” All of these trade woes not


are preventing the


ports of Vancouver and Everett from proceeding with infrastructure improvements. The Port of Vancouver just completed the West Vancouver freight access project, a $25 million investment that expands rail


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