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Issue 2 2018 - FBJ


several different gr o upa g e


vehicles. That way, only one vehicle will have to stop for inspection, rather than all or most of them. The industry may also have to accept that current practices such as dropping off part loads from vehicles travelling from Ireland to UK and taking up Continent-bound cargo in the UK, may not be viable in future. There may be delays caused by tailbacks in the ports, especially bearing in mind that a truck moving from Ireland to the Continent via the UK will pass through four of them. Flynn’s FTA Northern Ireland


colleague, Seamus Leheny, suggests that there may have to be different vehicles carrying ‘green’ or ‘red’ loads, depending on their likelihood of being stopped for checks, though it may open up opportunities for new specialist groupage operators – in the same way that there are today firms that specialise in carrying dangerous goods that regular operators don’t want to handle. “The current just in time model


does work pretty seamlessly, but you’ve only got to look at episodes such as snow to see how easily it can be disrupted, and Brexit could be the same.” The Irish Customs service has


mounted a major recruitment drive, but another concern is that customs expertise at the company level is dwindling as people with the expertise start to retire. It is aſter all a quarter of a century since anyone had to perform clearance


on an intra-EU consignment.


Another problem with training for customs is that the knowledge only really ‘sticks’ if the trainee then gets the opportunity to use it in their everyday job, and if there is to be a long transition period, that may not necessarily be the case. Make no mistake, says Flynn,


business is going to change, but there is also no need to get unduly alarmed. “We’d advocate the


importance of auditing


processes and the importance of operational compliance, and having independent verification of your systems. And ensure that your licensing and other paperwork is in order. It’s the sort of thing that should be routine for any operator, so if you can get that right, anything additional should not be too big a step.”


Brexit fatigue


In Northern Ireland, FTA policy manager Seamus Leheny says that “Brexit fatigue” has set in and the industry wants answers to its questions, rather than having the can kicked down the road by politicians yet again. The problems here are compounded further by the fact that the Stormont Government has been suspended because of disagreements between the different factions, which has ramifications in all sorts of areas. “For example, a big problem


we have here is recruitment of drivers and warehouse staff, as a large percentage were foreign


nationals.” Finding local school- leavers could be part of


the


answer, “but because Stormont is not sitting, we don’t have access to the apprenticeship service here, because Stormont never got round to signing the legislation before it was suspended.” That leaves Northern Ireland businesses in the position of paying through their taxes for a service that they are unable to access themselves. The Stormont politicians’


absence also means that important road upgrades such as the York Street interchange in Belfast or the Newry relief road, are not getting signed off. Logistics staffing has become


a big issue in Northern Ireland, where


25% of warehouse


personnel and 15% of drivers are from the wider EU. What has tended to happen in the last few years was that local Northern Ireland drivers, who prefer nine to five shiſts that allow them to go home every night, have tended to leave the less popular ‘across- the-water’ work to the EU drivers. Similarly, the migrants tend to do the less popular night shiſts in warehouses. If it becomes impossible to recruit European staff, recruiting people in Northern Ireland will be “incredibly difficult,” predicts Leheny. Politicians have also tended


to underestimate both the complexity and the sensitivity of the modern supply chain, continues Leheny: “Politicians look at only the base statistics of cross-border trade. But a lot of


our members have distribution centres and production plants on both sides of the border, and move materials back and forth across them several times before there’s a finished item. “Also, a large proportion of


goods are shipped to GB on a just- in-time basis, perhaps via Dublin- Holyhead as that is oſten the fastest route to the English Midlands and South. Any barriers that go up could put that in jeopardy, and it could lead to processing jobs being lost in Ireland.” Of particular concern are the


estimated 3,000 cross-border daily truck movements carrying foodstuffs which, under a no-deal Brexit, could mean perhaps 20% of them being stopped for physical examination – perhaps around 500 a day. Even those not selected for physical checks would still have to halt for paperwork and seals to be examined, all of which have potential to cause chaos, not just to freight, but to road traffic in general. Would food trucks need a dedicated route? There has been some talk of


Northern Ireland continuing to align its regulations with those of the EU, while the rest of the UK goes its own way. But that raises the prospect of UK retailers having to hold separate product lines for the mainland and Northern Ireland. As in southern Ireland, firms


are considering applying for AEO status, but it does mean a lot of work, and at the moment there’s no certainty that it would not be


ideas have the


///IRELAND


wasted effort, Leheny points out. Other


including been


suggested for how border customs might operate aſter Brexit


so-called


‘Maximum facilitation’ plan based on ANPR cameras reading truck numberplates. However, as FTA has pointed out to Brexit secretary David Davies and others, the truck that delivers the goods is not necessarily the same one that picks them up, given the amount of groupage operation, cross- docking and the like. Trailers are swapped between tractor units or sent unaccompanied on ferries. The border between non-EU


Norway and Sweden has also been suggested as a possible model of how post-Brexit customs


could work in Ireland, but again there are differences. “Did you know, for instance, that that border closes for goods at 10pm every night?” points out Leheny. “And also, there are more border crossings in County Monaghan alone than between the whole of Norway and Sweden. There is also the question of


what to with trucks held up at the border. The motorway link across the border was built without giving any thought to such matters. And finally, the chief constable


of Northern Ireland has said that he does not have the resources to devote to protecting border infrastructure or personnel should some dissident paramilitary group see it as a provocation.


Brexit blunts growth prospects


The UK’s coming ‘Brexit’ has taken some of the shine off Ireland’s growth prospects, said the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in its forecast for the country’s economy, published in mid-June. Nevertheless, the economic


experts’ suggested 3.9% figure for 2019, while somewhat lower than the expected 4.7% figure for 2018, is very respectable by the standards of all other European countries and, indeed, much of the rest of the world. What has spooked the


economists slightly are the raised expectations that the UK will perform a ‘hard’ Brexit, which has implications for Ireland’s trade to the UK itself, the UK ‘landbridge’ to the remaining EU countries and the cross-border traffic with Northern Ireland. Brexit is a problem for the


whole of the EU but Ireland, being a peripheral nation and moreover one whose trade is largely to, from or via the UK, could be more affected than most. Nevertheless, Ireland’s


expected growth compares very favourably with the EU average, which it puts at only 2%. Employment, wages and


incomes are all rising in Ireland, says OECD and, despite Brexit, business confidence is still pretty high. Evidence of the booming


economy, if any were needed, is the Dublin property market.


Freight companies that acquired premises aſter around 2008, when the property market crashed and there was a glut of available sites, are today congratulating themselves, as there is a definite shortage of space now. Brexit has also to some extent fuelled speculation in the property market. Will companies that currently serve Ireland as an offshoot of the UK be so willing to do so in future, or will they seek to set up distribution centres in Ireland? The European Commission,


in a report published at about the same time as OECD’s said that the overall external economic environment would remain broadly supportive of Irish exports. Possible downsides include


rising costs within the country, including fuel and energy, along with food, land and rental costs. Meanwhile, government


development organisation Enterprise Ireland said that, Brexit worries or not, there was no let-up in the growth of the country’s food exports. Food exports by Enterprise Ireland members increased by 10% in 2017 to €11.6bn, making it a record year. The UK remains the strongest


export market, representing just over a third of exports last year, and were still powering ahead with 4% growth to €7.62bn. On the reasonable


assumption that UK citizens will still need to eat aſter Brexit, this is one market that should not be unduly affected.


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