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CURRENCY WATCH


FX OIL


a very gradual rally to retest 1352 through February 2019, still within a broad, medium-term consolidation [1167 – 1355] through March 2019. We continue to stress that this consolidation is the final formation of the long-term bottom for Gold for a relatively shallow rally to 1525, out to January 2020 from the first half of 2019. Only a monthly close back below 1167 (nudging medium- term momentum back to neutral/ bearish and commence a decline to retest 1088 over the subsequent four months) or a monthly close above 1356 (commencing the rally to only 1525) would alter the neutral medium-term outlook into the middle of 2019.


OIL


BITCOIN/USD GOLD


The inverse relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar is one of the few correlations between asset classes that remains mostly intact during this disjointed global period in the markets. Our long-term bearish outlook for Gold since May 2012 culminated with the decline


to the 1044.55 ongoing long-term objective 2015.


for Gold in December


After the forecast rally from 1238 to the 1374 March 2018 objective left medium-term techs eroding in neutral, we have completed the forecast decline to retest 1261 for August 2018. We are forecasting


As discussed in the last eight quarters of articles in FX Trader Magazine, the plunge in Crude Oil from 108, through the 33.20 long- term objective for January 2016 to 26, produced the strongest medium- term divergences in 15 years [stronger than from the plunge in 2009]. In addition, the rally through both the 62.60 interim objective [forecast for February 2018] and through the 69.20 ongoing medium- term objective for April 2018 to 72.85 produced weak complex long- term divergences and left neutral/ bullish medium-term momentum waning back to neutral.


We are forecasting a decline to retest FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2018 29


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