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CURRENCY WATCH


subsequent rally to 1.4565 into June 2019 in a resulting higher long-term outlook [1.3660 – 1.5025] through July 2019. Only a monthly close back below 1.2785 (yielding 1.2110 weak long-term support over four months) or a monthly close back above 1.4910 (resulting in a rally to 1.5930 weak long-term resistance over four months) would alter our broad, neutral/bullish medium- term outlook through July 2019.


NOTE: EUR/GBP - We are forecasting a retest of .8620, out to November 2018, in [.8555 - .9030] into February 2019.


USD/JPY


After the premature monthly close below 108.15 in February 2018 and decline to 104.30 left medium- term technicals very divergent, the forecast retest of 110.20 for May 2018 alleviated the divergent medium- term conditions. We are still in the forecast rally to retest 111.40 from July 2018, and continue to forecast the subsequent gradual decline to retest 104.30 into January 2018, still in a broad, choppy medium- term consolidation


[ 104.30 –


113.40] through February 2019. Only a monthly close still below 104.30 (reigniting bearish medium- term momentum and resulting in a decline to retest 100.20 over two months) or a monthly close still above 113.40 (resulting in a strong


USD/JPY


FX


USD/CHF


retest of 118.60 over three months) would alter the mixed, neutral/ bearish medium-term outlook.


NOTE: Decline shy of 124.10


forecast for September 2018. We are now forecasting a retest of 141.05 through March 2019 in a subsequently higher, broad outlook [127.55 – 141.20] into the third


quarter of 2019. USD/CHF


I am sorry to again state one of my strongest beliefs about the currency market; that the Swiss Franc remains the bellwether, proactive currency. Indicative of the forecast waning bullish long-term momentum in the


FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2018 27


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