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CURRENCY WATCH by Keith Raphael


FX


Post - Dollar Bull Market Medium-term Consolidations Ending;


Dollar Top Development Completed into 2019


As discussed in the last five quarterly FX Trader Magazines, the U.S. Dollar has moved from the ongoing forecast seven-year bull market to a top building pattern of various types depending on the currency as well as depending on the other assets. The sideways consolidation, in the Euro/Dollar in particular, through midyear 2017, reverted the Dollar to neutral. In addition, the neutral status was accompanied by


the classic currency and commodity asset rotation throughout their individual, unique consolidations, further clouding the underlying trends and correlations.


In this article, we will remain focused on the long-term outlook in these assets, identify extended consolidations in currencies and commodities, and refine the timing of the exit from bottom building


in most currencies against the U.S. Dollar. We continue to believe that the U.S. Dollar is the lead indicator for all [non-equities] asset classes, and the subsiding volatility forecast for 2018 will continue into the first quarter of 2019.


Lastly, we will continue to forecast Bitcoin, added to the mix of our medium-term technical forecasting despite its shortcomings.


FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2018 25


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