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FX CRYPTOCURRENCIES


ETH had come off a low of €300 and rallied more than 100% in just a month before pulling back and over a 2-week period set up a short trade with a target of €462. I got that number by taking 695 (May 6) as the A point, 533 (May 12) as


the B


point, and 624 (May 15) as the C point to project the D point. The market made a low of €463, one euro short of completing a perfect 1:1 ABC down.


It was not easy to short ETH


in a big way on screen, so I got hold of as many brokers as I could asking for a two-way quote and then kept selling until I was short to the eyeballs. I have traded this exact pattern in multiple markets and multiple timeframes and the win ratio is phenomenal. I did not have any ETH to deliver but used the time to settlement to let the trade move into a 13% profit in 41 hours before squaring my positions with the same brokers I had opened them with.


Where is Bitcoin Headed?


I am quite certain that Bitcoin is headed for $3,000 before this bear market is over and it is based on the following observations. I have never seen a market bottom out the way Bitcoin has traded over the past 8 months. Every top is lower than the previous and during this entire time, stops have been building under $5,800 (chart 1.17). Te market’s job is to fill orders and when the stops under support trigger it may well be the worst day percentage wise in Bitcoin history.


Chart 1.17 September 30, 2018 – Daily chart of Bitcoin at $6,584


Let’s look at another bubble for similarities and guidance. Chart 1.18 shows a weekly chart of the Nasdaq as it rallied to 5,000 and crashed in exactly the same wave pattern as Bitcoin did on the daily, annotated in chart 1.17. Te crash is identical up until point 15. Ten, aſter the Nasdaq broke support down at point 14, that level turned into resistance and the index subsequently got cut in half before finding a bottom.


Add to that, Ethereum broke to new lows for the year in August and lost half of its value over the following month. Bitcoin is no different, and if you believe that I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.


Patric Tengelin Chart 1.18 1998 – 2003 Weekly chart of the Nasdaq as the bubble burst


For more timely analysis visit TimingTeMarket.com


24 FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2018


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