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FX CURRENCY WATCH


EUR/USD As stated in the last three years of articles for FX Trader Magazine, our long-term forecast continued to stress the top in the EUR/USD since 2009 [at 1.4740], as well as the forecast subsequent declines to 1.1555 for March 2014, and 1.0460 for October 2016 in the ongoing


seven-year Dollar Bull Market Forecast. By rallying from the low to complete the monthly close back above 1.1305 in June 2017, we crossed our “line in the sand” and terminated the Dollar Bull Market.


We have completed the forecast retest of 1.1445 [just above the original breakout] for September 2018, and


now forecast a retest of 1.2040 into December 2018, still in the lower, choppy, consolidation [1.1305 – 1.2165] into February 2019. We are forecasting a subsequent rally through 1.2090 to retest 1.2555 through March 2019, on route to 1.3190 through June 2019 in the first leg of the U.S. Dollar bear market through midyear 2019. Only a monthly close in EUR/USD above 1.2555 (resulting in a new leg up to 1.3990 strong long-term resistance over six months) or still a monthly close back below 1.1305 (eroding medium-term techs within neutral and yielding a decline to retest 1.0815 strong medium-term support over two months) would alter our more neutral/bullish medium-term outlook from neutral outlook for EUR/USD for the next nine months.


EUR/USD


GBP/USD When


our bearish forecast for GBP/USD 26 FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2018


GBP/USD was completed with the decline to the 1.3655 long-term objective in June 2016, the further deep and brief decline to 1.1950 developed the strongest complex medium-term divergences in a year, and a resulting rally to 1.4370 shy of 1.4565 in April 2018. We are now forecasting a rally from the 1.3155 July 2018 objective to retest 1.3475 into November 2018, and 1.3710 into January 2019, still within the ongoing, volatile, medium-term outlook [1.2775 – 1.4225] into March 2019. We are forecasting a


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