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FX CURRENCY WATCH


U.S. Dollar, USD/CHF rallied to 1.0040 in October 2017, just shy of the 1.0110 objective for November 2017. Simultaneously, the EUR/ CHF rallied from 1.0960 to the 1.1790 medium-term objective. The failure


to close above both


USD/CHF at 1.0110 as well as EUR/CHF at 1.1790 in December 2017 were the clear indications


that the final, last gasp rally in the long-term U.S. Dollar had taken place.


We are in the forecast decline from the 1.0010 August 2018 objective to .9660 originally forecast for November 2018. We continue to forecast the subsequent decline to .9445 into December 2018 in a


still neutral/bearish medium-term outlook [.9445 – 1.0040] through May 2019. As in the last three quarterly outlooks, only a monthly close below .9445 in USD/CHF (resulting in a decline to .8705) would confirm the commencement of the broader Dollar decline to ensue through late 2019.


NOTE: EUR/CHF failed the


1.1790 medium-term objective for November 2017; retest of 1.1215 for November 2018 complete; still broad [1.1215 – 1.1845] into May 2019.


USD/RUB USD/RUB


After the yearlong decline to 55.70 in April 2017 produced strong complex medium-term divergences just shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the sideways 6% consolidation throughout the first quarter of 2018 alleviated most of the divergences. We have completed the forecast


rally to retest 66.50 GOLD 28 FX TRADER MAGAZINE October - December 2018


for September 2018, and now forecast a retest of 62.90 into December 2018 in another broad, 14% consolidation range [58.45 – 71.80] through February 2019. Only a monthly close back above 71.60 (reigniting bullish medium- term momentum and beginning an 8% rally to 77.45 over two months) or a monthly close below 62.40 (yielding 58.15 over two months) would alter the volatile, neutral, medium-term outlook.


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