IN MY OPINION...
the loop; reduced operational cost by taking out the pay cheques for those same human workers; and increased space for cargo by eliminating the accommodation and habitability systems they so greedily require.
Digital disruption: keep it rational
Kevin Tester casts a sceptical eye over some of the claims for Big Data and advances towards autonomous shipping.
Irrational exuberance is a phrase used to describe the behaviour of investors in the lead up to a bubble in the financial markets. It often crops up in discussions about the 2008 credit crunch. Yet, in fact, it originated more than a decade earlier in 1996, when Alan Greenspan, the then-Federal Reserve Board chairman, chose these words to convey his concerns about Internet and technology companies being overvalued in the early days of the dot-com boom.
The term therefore is strangely fitting when observing the current excitement surrounding the potential impact of new technologies in the context of shipping. Buzzwords such as Big Data, algorithms, Internet of Things, robots, disruption and, of course, remote/autonomous/ unmanned vessels have become inescapable for anyone following the industry. But to what extent are the capabilities – and, perhaps more importantly, the limitations – of these innovations properly understood? And, to what extent do expectations match reality?
Take for instance, Big Data and algorithms. The mountains of data that can be collected from the equipment on modern ships is mostly only relevant – and available – to the equipment suppliers concerned. Certainly it will aid their efforts to
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improve uptime and reliability. However, when viewed against the bigger picture, the consequent gains in efficiency won’t be phenomenal; rather they will be incremental.
Some have argued that improving the quality and making better use of the data already available – for example, to benchmark and identify
underperforming ships in a fleet – would result in a greater payback, but it seems counterintuitive that buying in an extra service to expose already existing flaws represents any dramatic saving.
The Internet of Things – the ability to monitor and control systems online – may have some interesting applications. Maersk has for many years monitored the status of perishable or high-value cargo carried on its ships to improve transparency and provide assurance to the cargo owner. Such requirements will increase as supply-chains become more sophisticated and seek greater visibility.
However, the ability to control systems from afar may offer convenience but also brings new risks – particularly in relation to cybersecurity. Furthermore, it increases reliance on a stack of intermediary systems, not least the satellite communications and related networking paraphernalia linking the ship and shore. In this case, the advantages of remote access must be carefully weighed up against the possible threats and added complexity.
Let’s briefly consider the big one: autonomous ships. The arguments put forward for self- or remotely- controlled vessels are many: increased safety by removing the seemingly error-prone human from
While human error is a factor in the majority of incidents, it is worth considering how many casualties were avoided thanks to the quick- thinking and actions of crew. No-one sets out to cause an accident, especially if lives are at stake. It is questionable whether computer algorithms will ever prove as adept, flexible and ingenuous as a team of human workers. They will certainly struggle in fixing a fuel valve leak!
The focus on salaries seems to ignore the value that crew add, for example, in carrying out ongoing maintenance during a voyage. The apparent alternative of performing maintenance in port would significantly diminish revenue-generating time at sea, or are we to believe these unmanned craft are immaculately created, and flawless in their design and construction? Flying out to rescue a broken down ship in the middle of the ocean will put a sizeable dent in any savings made in the HR payroll.
Capital will only displace labour if the price is right. At the moment, those conditions are not met: crew are simply too cheap, while the additional expense needed to provide sufficient mechanical and operational redundancy on top of greater complexity is too high.
As technology marches forward, it opens up all sorts of tempting possibilities. And it would be wrong to ignore or immediately dismiss those opportunities. But we should not be blinded by unproven claims or capabilities. Just because something can be done doesn’t mean it should be done – or that it makes financial sense to do so.
In 2001, the dot-com bubble burst and the markets corrected as the irrational exuberance so presciently noted by Greenspan was reined in and the true value of those technology stocks became clear. There is maybe a lesson here for shipping in 2017.
Seatrade Maritime Review • Quarterly Issue 2 • June 2017
PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK
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