AMERICAS • COLOMBIA
President Santos inaugurating SPIA- Aguadulce Terminal
the rebound growth rate of around 4.5% that the Colombian Government predicts lies ahead.
Last year was crucial for Colombian politics. In December Colombia’s government formally ratified a revised peace agreement with the leftist rebel group FARC, capping four years of negotiations, a referendum rejection, last-minute compromises and two signing ceremonies.
Peace driving growth
Michele Labrut looks at how Colombia’s economy is set for a rebound following the end of over 50 years of internal armed conflict.
Colombia’s economic performance in 2016 was one of the lowest registered in the past seven years with 2% GDP growth according to official statistics, mostly due to a strong fall of 6% in the oil and mining sectors. Colombia’s economy remains heavily
dependent on petroleum, which has historically accounted for up to two-thirds of the country’s exports.
Colombia has not experienced such slow growth since 2009, when GDP reduced to 1.7% in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, according to the World Bank figures. Drought, rising inflation, and other effects of the El Niño weather phenomenon impacted agriculture during the first and second quarters of 2016.
The projected recovery could be threatened, however, by the possibility of ongoing high inflation and the private sector’s need to adjust to the major tax reform passed by the government in December, the World Bank said.
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‘I don’t have the slightest doubt that the worst has already passed and that perhaps the most serious damage occurred in 2016, because not only was it due to oil prices but
Cárdenas is currently
projecting the GDP to grow by around 2.5% in 2017
also the phenomenon of El Niño and the trucker strike, and as well as uncertainty about peace and tax reform,’ said Finance minister Mauricio Cárdenas. In many ways the downturn was unavoidable and has largely been caused by the drastic fall in the price of oil, he added.
Cárdenas is currently projecting the GDP to grow by around 2.5% in 2017, which is better than the 2.0% seen in 2016 but well below the highs seen during the commodity boom – and
Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos greeted the formal end of the armed conflict – that had lasted 52 years, claimed some 260,000 lives and left more than 6m people internally displaced – as the start of a ‘new era.’
Colombia’s rebels are now due to begin surrendering their weapons and make the transition from an armed group to a political party. Santos, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in October for his efforts to end the conflict, called the
disarmament process ‘historic news for Colombians’
According to World Policy institute, ‘to implement the peace agreement and ensure a peaceful reintegration of 6,300 rebels into society, the government will need to spend approximately $30bn over the next 10 years.’
Meanwhile, President Santos marked another landmark event for Colombian maritime circles in early March when he inaugurated the new port of Aguadulce in Buenaventura, considered the country’s most modern (see following article).
CORRECTION
In last year’s report on Colombia, we erroneously referred to the ship supplier company owned by Raymundo Murra Yacaman as Mango. In fact, Mr Murra Yacama’s successful ship chandlery business in Cartagena is called MAMBO, and we sincerely apologise for the mistake and any inconvenience caused.
Seatrade Maritime Review • Quarterly Issue 2 • June 2017 71
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