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PUBLISHER’S CORNER Is Another Oil Price Jump Ahead? WRITTEN BY TONY CORPIN | TONY@STNONLINE.COM A


s I browsed the headlines while preparing this column, news outlets reported heavily on the price of oil. It has become one of the hotter topics on people’s minds lately. Te


increasing demand and controlled output from domestic producers and OPEC nations are conflating to drive the market price per barrel of oil even higher. Demand for diesel and jet fuel will help push the benchmark Brent crude prices to $90 a barrel in 2020, according to Morgan Stanley. Refineries worldwide are struggling to keep pace with consumption, the report adds. But the big question is, how will this affect the school bus industry that has enjoyed low fuel prices for the past five years? In the last 12 months I’ve driven about 30,000 miles.


Tat’s a lot of gas—roughly 1,500 gallons, give or take. Te U.S. average for a gallon of regular gasoline is $2.879, up from $2.338 a gallon at this time last year, according to AAA. In California, the average price per gallon at this writing was about $3.59 per gallon, due to new state taxes. Wouldn’t you agree that paying more at the pump hits the pocket book? Compare my fuel consumption with that of your school bus drivers over the past school year. What are you forecasting them to use, starting in just several months if not weeks? I’m positive your school district’s transportation department is taking a hard look at the increasing oil prices. As you budget for the future needs of your fleet, don’t


ignore this major line item. Is your district looking to purchase newer, more fuel-efficient school buses this coming year? If not, perhaps your district should be. Record-setting demand for gasoline, robust U.S. fuel


exports and rising global oil prices could be conspiring to create pain at the pump for American motorists this summer, projects John Kilduff, founding partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital. “We could be on the cusp of a hot, high-priced gasoline summer,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on May 15. A new survey of STN EXPO attendees with the job title of transportation director also reported last month that their fleet composition has tipped in favor of gasoline, then diesel, followed by CNG and propane.


74 School Transportation News • JUNE 2018


A small percentage said they are using biodiesel, and a handful of districts in California have started to add battery-electric buses into their fleets. A school bus dealer I spoke with recently reiterated


this trend. He said he sees many school districts are opting for gasoline power when purchasing new school buses. While the number of these orders is shaping up to be the largest the industry has seen since gasoline returned as a large school bus option, today’s news about rising oil prices raises the question of whether or not this growth is sustainable. Based on what readers and several bus OEMs tell us, this spike is tied to the increasing cost of maintaining diesel systems. But with fuel prices increasing, what will gasoline’s effect be on the total cost of ownership for each vehicle? Meanwhile, states and school districts are targeting


the VW Mitigation Trust Fund, along with a few other government grant programs, to buy new alternative energy school buses. Next month, the STN EXPO will provide an excellent


opportunity for attendees to discuss with their peers the differences between the various fuels that are now avail- able. Attendees will also be able to visit the exhibit hall to chat with OEM partners and suppliers. Attendees can ask questions about the current trend of rising fuel costs and how they can help to mitigate the impact to their organizations. Tese industry partners are there to help educate attendees on the different products, programs and grants that can help achieve their goals. With this trend of higher oil prices, you can still plan


to remain efficient and fully operational into the new budgetary cycle that starts this summer. Be sure to take this opportunity to consider the numerous fuel choices available to you. It’s a smart decision to consider a long- term investment strategy in a sustainable technology that creates fuel savings for the future. A few years down the road (or even sooner), you could find yourself happy you made that decision. 


Tony Corpin, Publisher


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