TECHNICAL REPOR FXT SELECTED ASIAN / FAR EASTERN FX RATES – FEATURED MARKET – AUD/NZD
AUD/NZD extended the choppy advance from 1.0435 & 1.0654 lows in December 2005 & October 2008 to a peak of 1.3794 in March 2011.
The
retreat from there to 1.2321, followed by a recovery to 1.3276, left the right shoulder to a 3-4 year head & shoulders top pattern above a neck-line drawn off the 2009 & 2010 higher lows at 1.1936 & 1.2105. This major reversal pattern was completed towards the end of 2012, with a steep and sustained decline having followed, overshooting the October 2008 low
at 1.0654 to reach 1.0494 in January, just over the December 2005 extreme low at 1.0435. Recovery attempts from 1.0494 have been short-lived, the latest reversal under former key support at 1.0654 keeps alive immediate fears of a further slide towards a minimum of 1.0000-1.0043 (parity / measured move), possibly .9781 (100% of 1.1658-1.0494 measured from 1.0945) over the course of the next 6-12 months.
Steve Jarvis
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES As at 24 March NZD/USD USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/THB AUD/CAD AUD/NZD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD
Current level .8535
1.2720 3.2995 32.485 1.0220 1.0680 1.5110 1.6140
Major trend Up
Flat Up Up
Down Down Up
Flat
Major targets .8900 / .9395
3.4490 / 3.5465 34.459 / 36.280 .8982 / .8582 1.0043 / .9781 1.6353 / 1.7443
Trend change level .8052
1.2342 / 1.2970 3.1335 30.887 1.0451 1.1658 1.4056
1.5082 / 1.7271 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2014 83
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