FX TECHNICAL REPORT FX EMERGING MARKETS – FEATURED MARKET – USD/TRL
USD/TRL accelerated the advance from the February 2013 higher low at 1.7458 through the top of two projected bull channels around 2.2680 & 2.3350 to reach a peak of 2.3890 in January, ahead of the latest dip and consolidation. With the 12, 60 & 120 month moving averages remaining aligned & rising and MACD retaining a bullish structure, 2.3890 is expected to mark only a temporary top with a higher low ideally sought
around 2.00, midway between former tops at 1.9219 & 2.0832. We see scope for a further advance into the 2.4799-2.5990 area during the second half of 2104, this is two Fibonacci extensions (1.618 x the 2008-2009 & 2010-2011 rises, measured from the 2010 & 2012 higher lows). Te 2.618 Fibonacci extensions of the same moves come in at a much tighter range of 3.1335-3.1551 and this is our longer-term target (2 years).
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR FX EMERGING MARKETS As at 24 March EUR/CZK EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/RON USD/ILS USD/RUR USD/TRL USD/ZAR EUR/RUR EUR/ZAR
Current level 27.430 313.05 4.1940 4.4760 3.4935 36.135 2.2385 10.870 49.760 14.978
82 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2014
Major trend Up Up
Flat Up
Down Up Up Up Up Up
Major targets
28.317 / 28.795 324.16 / 349.93
4.8777 / 5.0109 3.3533 / 3.2043 38.414 / 40.377 2.4799 / 2.5990 11.870 / 12.818 54.127 / 56.324 16.788 / 17.137
Trend change level 25.849 291.85
4.0290 / 4.3690 4.3812 3.7189 32.490 2.0177 9.5500 44.560 13.314
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