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FX TECHNICAL REPORT CURRENCY OUTLOOK MAJOR US DOLLAR RATES - FEATURED MARKET – AUD/USD


AUD/USD extended the recovery from the October 2008 (5 ½ year) low at .6012 to reach 1.1079 in July 2011, the highest since 1982. Subsequent attempts to develop a higher double bottom at .9397 / .9584 failed, with rallies leaving lower tops ahead of an eventual breakdown in June 2013. MACD turned bearish around the same time to confirm the trend reversal and since then there has been a dead-cross of the 12 & 60 month moving averages. For now though, both the 60 & 120 month moving averages remain pointed upwards, suggesting the


overall move lower is corrective, ahead of an eventual return to strength. First though, the risk is seen for the current bounce off .8662 to leave a sub .9754 lower top, ideally by the .9298-.9541 area, ahead a deeper retreat over coming months to the base of the (magenta) 10 year bull channel. Tis is currently at .8229, rising by .0034 per month. A clean break of the bull channel is likely to reopen the (May) 2010 higher low at .8068, possibly overshooting to .7946-.7948 (100% lower from the 2013 .8850-.9754 rally / 61.8% retrace of .6012-1.1079).


MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR US DOLLAR MAJORS As at 24 March


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD


Current level 1.3775 1.6495


102.45


..8855 1.1220 .9110


Up Up


Down Up


Down


Major trend Up


Major targets


1.4257 / 1.4416 1.7041 / 1.7329 109.03 / 110.65 .8520 / .8234


1.1725 / 1.2200 .8317 / .8068


Trend change level 1.3303 1.5858 93.89 .9594


1.0399 .9541


80 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2014


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