MARKET TRENDS FX
the markets reached a very mature level into the new mi l lennium [Part Two of this Evolution], the highly integrated, inter- dependent fabric greatly reduced the volatility of the currency m a r k e t s . F u r t h e r r e du c t ion in volatility occurred as the
currencies
became more commoditized, and
the
mystery began to disappear. The de facto asset class became traded by mi l lions of individuals around the world through most firms
financial and
even became advertised on television!
integrations, such as NAFTA in the Americas and EU in Europe. Asia has worked toward the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. None of these agreements have produced a currency integration throughout
and access to trading portals. Anyone around the world can access the latest trading tools and platforms. Although the concentration of funds remains high, the exponential growth of asset managers and individuals t r a d i n g c u r r e n c i e s t h ro u g ho u t the world has increased the depth
of market
the and
further reduced volatility.
The global integration of financial markets works against volatility and reduces the daily ranges in the majors
VERTICAL GLOBAL INTEGRATION
Evolution Part Three has two elements in its development. The first and ongoing development is the further Vertical Integration of the Global Markets.
I continue
to delineate the long-term vertical integration by three major economic zones:
Africa, and Asia. Within these zones, there have been more concentrated
The Americas, Europe/
the whole Vertical Zone. I no longer believe that currency integration of each of the three major vertical zones is possible, and therefore a glimmer of hope for some volatility remains on the horizon.
TRADING SOFTWARE AND PORTALS
The second element of the Evolution Part Three is the further advancements
in trading software
All of these trends in global integration of financial markets, t he re f o re , are decidedly working against volatility in the
markets,
currency and
reduces the daily ranges
the majors. I am forecasting
a further decline in volatility and daily ranges over the next five years, although the longer-term trends will remain as long as 7 years with 40% increases and decreases in value. As new traders enter the market in the coming years, there will be a relief to some by the reduced volatility risk, but disappointment by others who loved the inherently wild nature of the currency markets.
Keith Raphael FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2014 29 in
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92