Statisticians: Are There Enough of Us?
Keith Crank, ASA Assistant Director of Research and Graduate Education
T
here is a lot of concern (in Washington, anyway) that there Academics, and Biostatistics/Biomedical). Rather than combin-
is an insufficient number of STEM (science, technology, ing information across all levels of experience, I only looked at
engineering, and mathematics) workers in the United entry-level salaries. For the academic salaries, beginning assistant
States, or at least that the number being produced is not enough professors (0–1 year of experience) at research universities went
to meet the demand over the next few years. I recently attended a from a median salary of $60,500 in 2002 to a median salary
workshop (sponsored by the Commission on Professionals in of $67,500 in 2006, an increase of 12%. (The 2007 data in
Science and Technology) and a seminar (at the Urban Institute) on the December issue of Amstat News shows a median salary of
this topic, and in spite of the hysteria in some places, the overall $72,000.) Over the same 2002–2006 time period, entry-level
STEM work force does not appear to be out of whack when com- biostatistics assistant professors’ salaries increased 20%, while for
pared to the available jobs. However, as might be expected, the the 2003–2007 time period, entry-level positions in business,
jobs available to STEM workers are changing, with some areas on industry, and government for someone with a master’s degree
a decline and others on an upswing. increased 15%–17% and entry-level positions in business and
Before discussing statisticians and the statistics discipline, let industry for someone with a PhD remained fairly flat. (For the
me briefly explain why I don’t believe the STEM work force, in last comparison, the calculation is difficult because the summa-
general, is in need of a large infusion of new workers. First, there ries were done differently in 2003 than in 2007.)
is the unemployment rate. Data from 2003 show an overall unem- Now, let me turn to the supply side. Between 2000 and 2005,
ployment rate in the United States of 5.6% and an unemployment the number of degrees awarded in statistics and biostatistics has
rate for STEM workers of 4.7%. While the lower unemployment grown dramatically. At the bachelor’s level, the increase has been
rate for STEM workers (when compared to the general work force) more than 30%, from 401 in 2000 to 527 in 2005. At the mas-
is evidence of some imbalance, it is not small enough to indicate ter’s level, the increase has been more than 60%, from 904 to
a serious supply problem. 1,572. And at the PhD level, the increase has been more than
The second reason I don’t believe there is a need for many more 40%, from 272 to 388.
STEM workers is wages. STEM workers do receive a premium All this indicates to me that there are not too many of us.
over the general work force when comparing wages. However, if While the number of people with statistics degrees is increasing
there was a shortage, this premium would be going up over time, rapidly, the wages for statisticians are generally keeping up with or
as wages for STEM workers rise more rapidly than for the general surpassing inflation, and unemployment appears to be minimal.
work force. This is not happening. In 1995, the premium was But there are signs that could be a reason for concern. The flatness
about 66%. In 2005, the premium was also about 66%. (These of the beginning salary for PhDs in business and industry is one
are issues raised at the workshop and seminar mentioned above. sign that continued large increases in PhD production may not be
I take no credit for coming up with these arguments, but I do a good strategy. Similarly, while the median salary for entry-level
believe they are correct.) biostatistics faculty increased 20% from 2002 to 2006, there was
Looking at individual fields within the STEM disciplines, how- a decrease from 2005 to 2006. Whether this is a sign of saturation
ever, shows the situation is not uniform. The unemployment rate or simply variability in the data is difficult to tell.
(2003 data) within STEM disciplines ranges from 0% (for many In conclusion, I believe the statistics profession is still doing
fields, including statistics) to 10% (for astronomers and physi- well. There are enough available jobs to absorb our graduating
cists). And the salary data indicate some fields are more attractive students, and the overall increase in salaries indicates this is likely
than others. (Unfortunately, the salary data are difficult to use to continue, especially for those with a master’s degree. We need
because the Bureau of Labor Statistics changed its job classifica- to continue to recruit students to our discipline.
tions in 2003. Thus, data from before 2003 are not always directly To contact me, send an email to keith@amstat.org. Questions
comparable to data for 2003 and later. However, this does not or comments about this article, as well as suggestions for future
appear to be a problem when comparing all STEM disciplines to articles, are always welcome. n
the general work force.)
So, let’s look at statistics. Using 2003 BLS data for the profes-
Notes about the data: Multiple sources of data were used for this article.
sion defined as statistics, the unemployment rate was essentially
These data are not always consistent, either across sources or within
0% (less than 0.1%), while the overall unemployment rate was
sources across time. The primary source for the information about overall
salaries and unemployment comes from the Commission on Professionals
5.6%. For all STEM disciplines, it was 4.7%. This is a strong indi-
in Science and Technology’s Work Force Data Project (which uses BLS
cation that there is not an oversupply of statisticians. But, is there a
data for this information). The data on statistics degrees comes from the
shortage? This is difficult to evaluate. The wage data from BLS for
National Center for Education Statistics (by way of WebCASPAR). The
statisticians is highly variable. This is more likely due to the rota-
ASA salary surveys are available on the ASA web site under “Professional
tion of people into their sample than to large year-to-year fluctua-
Needs.” The seminar at the Urban Institute was based on a paper by Hal
tions in the wages for statisticians.
Saltzman (Urban Institute) and Lindsey Lowell (Georgetown University)
Instead of using BLS data, I looked at the three salary sur- and is available through the Urban Institute.
veys conducted by the ASA (Business/Industry/Government,
12 AMSTAT NEWS JANUARY 2008
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