66 % urbanisation by 2025. (Plan Bleu computations based on UNDESA 2010). In coastal regions, where the urbanisation pro- cess results in over-development, the urban population could increase by 33 million (30 million of that increase in the south and east) between 2000 and 2025.
As for the overall distribution of population the number of coast- al cities with more than one million inhabitants is largest in the western Mediterranean on the eastern coast of the Levantine basin, and in the Nile Delta region. In absolute terms, popula- tion growth remains high, and its impacts on the environment are likely to increase because of the greater number of people in cities and on the coasts.
The long history of the Mediterranean has led to a diversifica- tion of political and governance approaches, a broad range in economic development, and a diversity of social systems, all of which is reflected in the levels of development and the ecologi- cal footprints of the Mediterranean states. The ecological foot- print is a measure of human demand on the Earth’s ecosystems and it represents the amount of biologically productive land and sea area necessary to supply the resources a human population consumes, and to assimilate associated waste.
Mediterranean countries can be separated into two groups: 1. middle-income countries, with low Human Development Indi- ces (HDIs) and small ecological footprints plus substantial pro- gress in HDI, concentrated in the southern and eastern Medi- terranean and on the eastern shore of the Adriatic Sea; and
2. high-income countries, with high HDIs and large ecological footprints. These are the EU Mediterranean countries and Israel.
Between 2000 and 2007, all Mediterranean countries both im- proved their HDIs and increased the size of their ecological foot- prints, with the exception of Malta, which managed to decrease its ecological footprint (UNEP/MAP/BP 2011).
Human economic activities have an impact on the structure and function of natural ecosystems and on the many services pro- vided by these ecosystems such as recreation, climate regulation and provision of natural resources, either living, such as fish and molluscs, or non-renewable, such as oil and gas and minerals. Coastal areas and their landscapes, in particular, face significant pressures from heavy concentrations of population and eco- nomic activities. As the coastal population grows and urbanises, natural coastal habitats and landscapes get further fragmented, the land use changes towards more anthropogenic with the cor- responding change in the landscapes leading to decreasing in- tegrity of coastal landscapes and ecosystems.
Economic sectors
Agriculture and forestry Agriculture in the Mediterranean Basin, despite many different sub-climates, is mainly rain-fed. Cereals, vegetables, and citrus fruits account for over 85 % of the Mediterranean’s total agricul- tural production (UNEP/MAP/BP/RAC 2009). Cultivation of other products, such as olives for olive oil and grapes for wine, also oc- cupies a significant amount of agricultural land (Leff et al. 2004).
Production of vegetables, cereals, and citrus fruits has increased to between 2,5 and 5 times the production levels of the 1960s. The total surface area of cultivated land in the Mediterranean
28 STATE OF THE MEDITERRANEAN MARINE AND COASTAL ENVIRONMENT
Basin, however, has remained approximately stable over this period. The increase results from intensified production through greater use of irrigation (approximately 20 million hectares in 1960, rising to 38 million hectares in 1999). Despite higher pro- duction, countries on the eastern and southern shores of the Mediterranean still depend on food imports to meet the require- ments of an increasing population (UNEP/MAP/BP/RAC 2009).
Besides rain-fed or irrigated cultivation, other common agricultur- al land uses in the Mediterranean Basin are pasture, animal feed- lots, dairy farming, and orchards. Aquaculture is also practised. All of these activities have environmental implications. Fertilising, tillage, application of pesticides, manure spreading, and cattle breeding feed nutrients (nitrates and phosphates), pesticides, and pathogens into the system (EEA and UNEP 1999). Surficial run-off, sediment transport, and leaching carry them into rivers, ground water, lakes, wetlands, and, ultimately, into the sea.
Especially in the drier parts of the Mediterranean Basin, agricul- tural production relies on the use, and sometimes over-use, of areas with good soil and adequate rainfall or irrigation water. The need to produce enough food drives over-extension of crops onto marginal land, easily degraded due to irregular rainfall and fragile soils on erosion-prone slopes. This leads to soil erosion, destruction of the woody and herbaceous cover, and a reduction in optimal grazing areas. Animal grazing is displaced, in turn, to poorer grazing areas and forests. The result is over-grazing, with the inevitable degradation of vegetation and soil, aggravating the process of desertification. According to the Intergovernmen- tal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the southern shores of the Mediterranean will be strongly affected by climate change, plac- ing an additional burden on agricultural production, which is al- ready limited by constrained natural resources.
The Mediterranean forests even if characterised by low produc- tivity provide several important ecosystem services (carbon se- questration, biodiversity, landscape quality, preservation of water
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